MO Variable "Contact" Helps in Analysis

I wrote this post in 2021 in another blog, and all these variables appear in the book Elements of Crime Patterns, along with others, in a different format. 

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In an ideal world, it would be easy for officers to collect as much data as was relevant to link serial crimes. But officers are human - they are rushed, are not trained to see the point of all this extra work, and possibly are forced by their data entry fields to leave out important information.

Some information is later collected by detectives who also are rushed, do not see the point of sharing with analysts, or don't ask enough good questions.

Nevertheless, here is a short example list of how a suspect and victim make contact when there are crimes against persons. Analyzing the modus operandi for commonalities when looking for serial crimes should include this variable: CONTACT.

Suspect/Victim Contact Facilitated by One of More of These Variables:

Though an Advertisement 

Ambushed Victim 

Lured Victim

Both In an Entertainment Place 

Forced Entry in Dwelling/Building/Vehicle

Hitchhiked with Victim 

Home/Residence Invitation 

Known to Victim 

Through Mail 

Through Email

In Cyberspace

Rang/Knocked for Entry

Suspect a Pedestrian 

Suspect a Relative 

Suspect an Employee 

Suspect a Former Employee 

Victim Entered Suspect's Business 

Victim a Hitchhiker 

Victim a Pedestrian 

Victim Drugged by Suspect

Suspect Entered Victim's Business 

What other means of contact would you put on this list?

If You Find Nothing

If you are a new analyst, you might take it personally when you go over a select group of crimes and find no patterns, or analyze a set of phone or bank records in an investigation and see nothing that is of value.

This is normal. But no one tells you that!

Analysts spend a great deal of time filtering through various forms of data looking for information that will be of value, and often they can spend hours, days, even weeks analyzing with no result. 

It's not necessarily you!

Yes, if you are a crime analyst, you should spot patterns in high volumes of robberies and burglaries, because there are likely repeat offenders committing more than one crime. But in a small jurisdictions, patterns are less frequent than in a large metropolitan area. That is normal.

Unfortunately, often you won't know if you missed patterns; sometimes you will find out when others find them ahead of you. That is normal, too.

If you are an intelligence or investigative analyst, you may often have a multitude of records to sift through. There is never a guarantee that you will find clues that can lead to arrest and prosecution. 

Once I worked through thousands of records for four months and it resulted in nothing. Our job is to dig.

If you find nothing when nothing is there, you are doing a great job!

Thinking about police data: Analysts’ perceptions of data quality

 "The lack of buy in from frontline personnel, who are mainly responsible for data entry, poses a significant question as to how well police are committed to data-driven policing and the necessary data collection tasks. Having high quality data entered into police data management systems has profound implications for the subsequent data analyses and decisions police make based on analytical work."

The quote above is from the Police Journal paper  Thinking about police data: Analysts’ perceptions of data quality in Canadian policing, available at this link. So true!

Data quality is such a huge issue for analysts - it affects everything you do. The problems of getting data WORTH analyzing is significant. Frontline personnel are not simply data entry clerks - they are often police officers who are in a rush to go to their next calls. How can they be convinced to gather information that is important to policing? 

I think a common understanding of data is needed - reasons to collect quality data have to be articulated so that make sense to ALL of the stakeholders. That has not been done. There must be the will to do it if we are to have the data needed to improve public safety. 

All officers KNOW what a crime series is and they themselves can often recognize them if they are the collectors of such a pattern, but it is not their job to identify them. We need to create a shared understanding of the value and role of information in the future of policing.

This is why I wrote Elements of Crime Patterns. It is a beginning step.

Filling in the Blanks

Most often, we safely assume crimes in a serial crime pattern generally are of the same type. A robber commits another robbery. A burglar commits another burglary. You get the picture. 

There may be the unusual series of crime where the crimes in a series do not fall under the same crime type umbrella. A robber becomes a rapist. A car thief becomes a burglar. 

Then there are the attempted crimes that can fall out of the series crime pattern identification search radar.  Examples include a robber following a target without being able to carry out the robbery, resulting in a suspicious person 911 call, or a burglar trying to break in unsuccessfully whose behaviors result in a reported criminal mischief (damage to property by breaking a lock or window). Anyone looking for more information in a series of crimes must consider looking outside standard assumption that serial criminals always commit the same crimes.

Crimes occur in context. A serial robber may strike after the bars close in a downtown area. A serial burglar make strike when families are at relatives’ funerals and homes are left unattended. A serial rapist make hunt for individuals on online dating sites. Some variables are unlikely to appear in crime reports. 

A number of crimes go unreported. The victims’ trust of law enforcement, the perception of whether or not the reporting of the crime is worth the effort or not, the willingness of officers’ to take a report and fill it out completely – these things must be considered when a crime series pattern has been identified. 

You want to fill in as many blanks as possible once you see that two or more crimes may be related. What might you be missing? What reports and files can you review? Who do you need to talk to?

Victim Vulnerabilities

 Two examples out of thirteen in the Victim Vulnerabilities from Chapter Seven:

 Technological vulnerabilities:

• lack of digital literacy
• weak online privacy and security practices
• cyberbullying or online harassment
• phishing scams and identity theft
• exploitation through social media or dating platforms
• over-sharing personal information online
• weak passwords
• revealing geotagged location details

 Cultural vulnerabilities:

• language barriers
• limited knowledge of local customs or laws
• cultural or religious practices that may make individuals more susceptible to victimization
• targeting based on ethnic or cultural background
• unfamiliar with the local environment
• targeting in popular tourist destinations

Example of content in the Theft of and from Vehicles

 Example of content in the Theft of and from Vehicles Chapter 34:

 Stolen Vehicle Indicators:

• Altered or Missing Vehicle Identification Number (VIN): The VIN plate on the dashboard or door jamb may be tampered with, missing, or appear altered. Mismatched vehicle identification number (VIN): If the VIN plate on the dashboard or door jamb appears to be tampered with, or if the VIN number on the registration, title, or insurance documents does not match the one on the car, this could be a sign that the car is stolen.
• Inconsistent or Missing Documentation: The car's registration, title, or other important documents may be missing, forged, or inconsistent with the vehicle's details.
• Broken Ignition or Steering Column: Evidence of a broken or damaged ignition or steering column can indicate forced entry or hot-wiring, which could suggest a stolen vehicle.
• Modified or Removed Key Locks: If the key locks have been changed or damaged, or if there are signs of tampering, it may indicate unauthorized access to the vehicle.
• Unauthorized License Plates: The car may have license plates from a different state or mismatched plates that do not correspond to the vehicle's make and model.
• Fresh Paint or Repairs: Recently applied paint, mismatched paint colors, or signs of repair work that don't match the vehicle's history could be an indicator of attempts to conceal the car's identity.
• Altered or Removed VIN Tags: The VIN tags on major parts of the vehicle, such as the engine or frame, may be missing, altered, or scratched off.
• Stolen Parts or Accessories: If the car contains stolen parts, such as a stereo system, airbags, or tires, or if valuable accessories are missing, it could suggest the vehicle has been stolen.
• Stolen Vehicle Reports: Checking databases or contacting the local authorities to see if the vehicle has been reported as stolen is an important step.
• No license plates or altered license plates: A car without any license plates or with altered plates is a potential sign that the car has been stolen.
• Keys that don't fit: If the keys that come with the car don't work, or if the ignition or door locks have been tampered with, this could indicate that the car has been stolen
• Low price: If the price of the car is significantly lower than its market value, this could be a red flag that the car is stolen.
• Out-of-state plates: If the car has out-of-state license plates or temporary plates that have been on the car for an extended period, this could be an indication that the car is stolen or has been taken across state lines to avoid detection.
• Signs of forced entry: If there are signs of forced entry, such as a broken window or a damaged lock, this could indicate that the car has been stolen.
• Inability to access the trunk: If the trunk cannot be opened or if the lock has been tampered with, this could be a sign that the car is stolen and that the thief is trying to hide something in the trunk.

Some Resources from the Dallas Police Department

While researching the book, I found some good, basic crime-pattern-related resources on the Dallas Police Department website. 

Here is an example:

Suspicious Activity & Behaviors Indicators - Burglary

Residential burglaries literally hit close to home. There is almost nothing more personal than having your home, and your privacy, invaded by a criminal.

Behavior that may indicate a burglary or burglary in progress.

• Unfamiliar vehicles in the driveway or back alley of a residence with no apparent purpose to be at the location. These vehicles may or may not have visible license plates. You may also see them driving at nighttime with their headlights off.
• Unfamiliar persons in the yard or backyard, looking into windows.
• Any attempt to force open windows or doors of a building or residence.
• Unfamiliar persons taking items from a building or apartment while the owners are not at the location.
• Burglars may stack household items by the door or window for easy retrieval when leaving the residence.
• Unfamiliar persons leaving a location in a hurried manner with items in hand. These items could include, but are not limited to, TV’s, Laptops, etc.
• Burglars may use several types of transportation to carry stolen items that could include a grocery cart, stroller, or any other equipment with wheels

There are a few more criminal activity types on the site - and while these indicators are general, it is important to educate the community as a means of preventing some crimes from happening in the first place.

Some of the burglary behaviors may show up in suspicious person reports that may then later be linked to an actual serial burglary pattern.

Location

 One example out of fifteen in the Location Chapter 22:

 Transportation hubs:

• airports and train stations
• bus terminals and stops
• seaports and docks
• taxi stands and ride-sharing pick-up points 

Examples of crimes at transportation hubs:

• theft or pickpocketing in crowded transit stations or buses
• assaults or harassment on public transportation
• drug-related activities in or around transportation hubs
• robberies targeting commuters carrying valuable items
• vandalism or property damage to transit infrastructure

Firearm Trafficking MO Variables

 Example of content in the Firearm Trafficking Chapter 50:

 Firearm Trafficking MO Variables

 Sourcing and Procurement

• Origin of Firearms: Illicit firearms may come from various sources, such as thefts from legal owners, military arsenals, or illegal manufacture.
• Point of Contact: Traffickers may establish contact with corrupt officials, rogue elements in military or police forces, or individuals with access to firearms.
• Documentation and Permits: Fake identification, altered permits, or even legitimate documents obtained through corrupt means are often used in the acquisition process

Storage and Staging

• Safe Houses and Warehousing: After acquisition, firearms are usually stored in hidden or secure locations, often guarded to prevent unwanted attention or seizures.
• Inventory Management: Sophisticated operations often have a detailed inventory system to track the firearms and ammunition, enabling quicker distribution when demand arises.

Transportation

• Transportation Methods: Various means, such as cars, boats, and even commercial flights, are used for moving firearms. Traffickers may use hidden compartments, disguise methods, or transport firearms in parts to avoid detection.
• Routing and Transshipment: Firearms are often moved through multiple points, sometimes even internationally, to obscure their origin and make tracking more difficult.

Sales and Distribution

• End Users: The firearms may be intended for street gangs, organized crime syndicates, insurgents, or terrorists, among others.
• Channels of Sale: Sales may take place through the dark web, face-to-face transactions, or through middlemen who facilitate the trade.
• Pricing and Payment: Prices are determined by demand, scarcity, and risk involved. Payments may be in cash, barter, or digital currency to leave minimal trace.

Support and Protection

• Corruption and Collusion: Bribes and other forms of corruption may be used to facilitate the trade, from the acquisition phase to the point of sale.
• Security Measures: Traffickers often employ various security protocols, including the use of disposable phones, coded language, and encrypted communications, to evade law enforcement.

 Adaptability and Scaling

• Adaptation to Law Enforcement Tactics: Traffickers adapt to law enforcement measures by changing routes, altering methods of concealment, and employing new technologies.
• Networking and Alliances: Traffickers may collaborate with other illicit trades or organized crime groups, sometimes diversifying into other forms of illegal activities.

There are 26 other crime categories in the book Elements of Crime Patterns.