These were the serial crimes I tracked when I was a crime analyst at the local level of policing:

Bank Robberies

Bar Related

Bootleg Goods

Cab/Taxi Driver Victims

Car Break-ins

Carjackings

Cemeteries

Commercial Crime

Construction Related

Counterfeit Money

Delivery Robberies

Disguises

Drugged/Intoxicated Victims

Elderly Victims

Fast Food Restaurant Related

Fraud/Scams

Gangs

Garage Burglaries

Gas Station Related

Graffiti

Handicapped Victims

Hate Crimes

Home Invasions

Homicides

Hotel/Motel Related

Juvenile Victims

Metal Theft

Parking Lot Related

Prostitution

Public Transportation Crimes

Purse Snatching

Religious Building Related

Repeat Offenders

Restaurant Related

Ruse Burglaries

School Related

Sex Crimes with Unknown Assailants

Shootings

Stolen Firearms

Theft from Coin Machines

Theft of Antiques/Collectibles

Theft of ATVs/Boats/Recreational Vehicles

Theft of Cigarettes

Theft of Computers

Theft of GPS Units

Theft of Jewelry

Theft of Pets/Animals

Vacant Dwelling Related

Vandalism

Weapon Possession

Knowledge & Skills

 One example out of ten in the Knowledge & Skills Chapter 18:

 Artistic Abilities:

• Art Forgery/Counterfeiting: Skills in painting, sculpture, graphics design, or other artistic mediums to create forgeries of art or counterfeit money.

Something to be aware of!

Identity and Travel Document Fraud

Interpol can assist you in investigations involving identity and travel document fraud. Check their resources out at this link.

Frome the site:

Thousands of different identity and travel documents exist worldwide so it can be a challenging task to spot the real thing. Our technical solutions allow member countries to conduct first-line cross-checks against our databases and reference resources at airports, sea ports and border crossings. 

The SLTD database (travel and identity documents) contains records of travel documents that have been reported as lost, stolen, stolen blank and revoked.

FIELDS provides visual information on the key markers that can indicate a counterfeit or forged document.

EdisonTD is a reference tool that contains images of genuine travel and identity documents.

DISCS is a database containing certificates of civil status such as birth, marriage, death, identity and citizenship.

WHO might be a business

In the who, what, where, when, how, and why of a case, WHO might not be a person, but, rather, a business. Of course, people who are engaged in illegality in the business may be investigated and prosecuted, too, but the business itself can be target of an investigation. You can develop a target profile for a business you are investigating.

from the College of Policing (England & Wales)  Intelligence Products:

Criminal business profiles aim to detail how criminal operations/businesses operate. A criminal business can be described in the same way as a legitimate business. The only difference is that with a criminal business there is always a victim. This technique breaks down the criminal process into stages, focusing on key elements of the business process. This helps identify the key stages that cannot be achieved without completing another, thereby indicating areas for disruption. It should also highlight weaknesses in systems or procedures that are being exploited and identify intelligence gaps and new lines of enquiry.

A flow chart is a useful tool in a criminal business profile and can be used to show business and financial processes. Crime script analysis serves as a useful analytical tool to support this process. This product is often used in conjunction with market and subject analysis to provide a comprehensive picture of criminal activity and the people involved.

ICLG USA Business Crimes Law and Regulations 2021 is available at this link. It provides a good summary regarding what laws apply to businesses and potential illegal activities.

From the FBI's White-Collar Crime page, located at this link.

"Reportedly coined in 1939, the term white-collar crime is now synonymous with the full range of frauds committed by business and government professionals. These crimes are characterized by deceit, concealment, or violation of trust and are not dependent on the application or threat of physical force or violence. The motivation behind these crimes is financial—to obtain or avoid losing money, property, or services or to secure a personal or business advantage."

Marine Ports and Organized Crime

Even if your jurisdiction has no nexus to marine ports, understanding how ports facilitate organized crime activity is good to know. How might your jurisdictions' crime have a connection? 

Organized Crime Research Brief no. 25 - Marine Ports and Organized Crime is available at this link.

Seaport Vulnerability to Criminal Networks: A Mixed Method Approach to Measuring Criminological Vulnerability in the Top 30 U.S. Container Ports is a research paper available at this link.

The book Elements of Crime Patterns presents variables that can be combined for thinking about such links.

MO Variable "Contact" Helps in Analysis

I wrote this post in 2021 in another blog, and all these variables appear in the book Elements of Crime Patterns, along with others, in a different format. 

~~

In an ideal world, it would be easy for officers to collect as much data as was relevant to link serial crimes. But officers are human - they are rushed, are not trained to see the point of all this extra work, and possibly are forced by their data entry fields to leave out important information.

Some information is later collected by detectives who also are rushed, do not see the point of sharing with analysts, or don't ask enough good questions.

Nevertheless, here is a short example list of how a suspect and victim make contact when there are crimes against persons. Analyzing the modus operandi for commonalities when looking for serial crimes should include this variable: CONTACT.

Suspect/Victim Contact Facilitated by One of More of These Variables:

Though an Advertisement 

Ambushed Victim 

Lured Victim

Both In an Entertainment Place 

Forced Entry in Dwelling/Building/Vehicle

Hitchhiked with Victim 

Home/Residence Invitation 

Known to Victim 

Through Mail 

Through Email

In Cyberspace

Rang/Knocked for Entry

Suspect a Pedestrian 

Suspect a Relative 

Suspect an Employee 

Suspect a Former Employee 

Victim Entered Suspect's Business 

Victim a Hitchhiker 

Victim a Pedestrian 

Victim Drugged by Suspect

Suspect Entered Victim's Business 

What other means of contact would you put on this list?

If You Find Nothing

If you are a new analyst, you might take it personally when you go over a select group of crimes and find no patterns, or analyze a set of phone or bank records in an investigation and see nothing that is of value.

This is normal. But no one tells you that!

Analysts spend a great deal of time filtering through various forms of data looking for information that will be of value, and often they can spend hours, days, even weeks analyzing with no result. 

It's not necessarily you!

Yes, if you are a crime analyst, you should spot patterns in high volumes of robberies and burglaries, because there are likely repeat offenders committing more than one crime. But in a small jurisdictions, patterns are less frequent than in a large metropolitan area. That is normal.

Unfortunately, often you won't know if you missed patterns; sometimes you will find out when others find them ahead of you. That is normal, too.

If you are an intelligence or investigative analyst, you may often have a multitude of records to sift through. There is never a guarantee that you will find clues that can lead to arrest and prosecution. 

Once I worked through thousands of records for four months and it resulted in nothing. Our job is to dig.

If you find nothing when nothing is there, you are doing a great job!

Thinking about police data: Analysts’ perceptions of data quality

 "The lack of buy in from frontline personnel, who are mainly responsible for data entry, poses a significant question as to how well police are committed to data-driven policing and the necessary data collection tasks. Having high quality data entered into police data management systems has profound implications for the subsequent data analyses and decisions police make based on analytical work."

The quote above is from the Police Journal paper  Thinking about police data: Analysts’ perceptions of data quality in Canadian policing, available at this link. So true!

Data quality is such a huge issue for analysts - it affects everything you do. The problems of getting data WORTH analyzing is significant. Frontline personnel are not simply data entry clerks - they are often police officers who are in a rush to go to their next calls. How can they be convinced to gather information that is important to policing? 

I think a common understanding of data is needed - reasons to collect quality data have to be articulated so that make sense to ALL of the stakeholders. That has not been done. There must be the will to do it if we are to have the data needed to improve public safety. 

All officers KNOW what a crime series is and they themselves can often recognize them if they are the collectors of such a pattern, but it is not their job to identify them. We need to create a shared understanding of the value and role of information in the future of policing.

This is why I wrote Elements of Crime Patterns. It is a beginning step.

Filling in the Blanks

Most often, we safely assume crimes in a serial crime pattern generally are of the same type. A robber commits another robbery. A burglar commits another burglary. You get the picture. 

There may be the unusual series of crime where the crimes in a series do not fall under the same crime type umbrella. A robber becomes a rapist. A car thief becomes a burglar. 

Then there are the attempted crimes that can fall out of the series crime pattern identification search radar.  Examples include a robber following a target without being able to carry out the robbery, resulting in a suspicious person 911 call, or a burglar trying to break in unsuccessfully whose behaviors result in a reported criminal mischief (damage to property by breaking a lock or window). Anyone looking for more information in a series of crimes must consider looking outside standard assumption that serial criminals always commit the same crimes.

Crimes occur in context. A serial robber may strike after the bars close in a downtown area. A serial burglar make strike when families are at relatives’ funerals and homes are left unattended. A serial rapist make hunt for individuals on online dating sites. Some variables are unlikely to appear in crime reports. 

A number of crimes go unreported. The victims’ trust of law enforcement, the perception of whether or not the reporting of the crime is worth the effort or not, the willingness of officers’ to take a report and fill it out completely – these things must be considered when a crime series pattern has been identified. 

You want to fill in as many blanks as possible once you see that two or more crimes may be related. What might you be missing? What reports and files can you review? Who do you need to talk to?

Victim Vulnerabilities

 Two examples out of thirteen in the Victim Vulnerabilities from Chapter Seven:

 Technological vulnerabilities:

• lack of digital literacy
• weak online privacy and security practices
• cyberbullying or online harassment
• phishing scams and identity theft
• exploitation through social media or dating platforms
• over-sharing personal information online
• weak passwords
• revealing geotagged location details

 Cultural vulnerabilities:

• language barriers
• limited knowledge of local customs or laws
• cultural or religious practices that may make individuals more susceptible to victimization
• targeting based on ethnic or cultural background
• unfamiliar with the local environment
• targeting in popular tourist destinations

Example of content in the Theft of and from Vehicles

 Example of content in the Theft of and from Vehicles Chapter 34:

 Stolen Vehicle Indicators:

• Altered or Missing Vehicle Identification Number (VIN): The VIN plate on the dashboard or door jamb may be tampered with, missing, or appear altered. Mismatched vehicle identification number (VIN): If the VIN plate on the dashboard or door jamb appears to be tampered with, or if the VIN number on the registration, title, or insurance documents does not match the one on the car, this could be a sign that the car is stolen.
• Inconsistent or Missing Documentation: The car's registration, title, or other important documents may be missing, forged, or inconsistent with the vehicle's details.
• Broken Ignition or Steering Column: Evidence of a broken or damaged ignition or steering column can indicate forced entry or hot-wiring, which could suggest a stolen vehicle.
• Modified or Removed Key Locks: If the key locks have been changed or damaged, or if there are signs of tampering, it may indicate unauthorized access to the vehicle.
• Unauthorized License Plates: The car may have license plates from a different state or mismatched plates that do not correspond to the vehicle's make and model.
• Fresh Paint or Repairs: Recently applied paint, mismatched paint colors, or signs of repair work that don't match the vehicle's history could be an indicator of attempts to conceal the car's identity.
• Altered or Removed VIN Tags: The VIN tags on major parts of the vehicle, such as the engine or frame, may be missing, altered, or scratched off.
• Stolen Parts or Accessories: If the car contains stolen parts, such as a stereo system, airbags, or tires, or if valuable accessories are missing, it could suggest the vehicle has been stolen.
• Stolen Vehicle Reports: Checking databases or contacting the local authorities to see if the vehicle has been reported as stolen is an important step.
• No license plates or altered license plates: A car without any license plates or with altered plates is a potential sign that the car has been stolen.
• Keys that don't fit: If the keys that come with the car don't work, or if the ignition or door locks have been tampered with, this could indicate that the car has been stolen
• Low price: If the price of the car is significantly lower than its market value, this could be a red flag that the car is stolen.
• Out-of-state plates: If the car has out-of-state license plates or temporary plates that have been on the car for an extended period, this could be an indication that the car is stolen or has been taken across state lines to avoid detection.
• Signs of forced entry: If there are signs of forced entry, such as a broken window or a damaged lock, this could indicate that the car has been stolen.
• Inability to access the trunk: If the trunk cannot be opened or if the lock has been tampered with, this could be a sign that the car is stolen and that the thief is trying to hide something in the trunk.

Some Resources from the Dallas Police Department

While researching the book, I found some good, basic crime-pattern-related resources on the Dallas Police Department website. 

Here is an example:

Suspicious Activity & Behaviors Indicators - Burglary

Residential burglaries literally hit close to home. There is almost nothing more personal than having your home, and your privacy, invaded by a criminal.

Behavior that may indicate a burglary or burglary in progress.

• Unfamiliar vehicles in the driveway or back alley of a residence with no apparent purpose to be at the location. These vehicles may or may not have visible license plates. You may also see them driving at nighttime with their headlights off.
• Unfamiliar persons in the yard or backyard, looking into windows.
• Any attempt to force open windows or doors of a building or residence.
• Unfamiliar persons taking items from a building or apartment while the owners are not at the location.
• Burglars may stack household items by the door or window for easy retrieval when leaving the residence.
• Unfamiliar persons leaving a location in a hurried manner with items in hand. These items could include, but are not limited to, TV’s, Laptops, etc.
• Burglars may use several types of transportation to carry stolen items that could include a grocery cart, stroller, or any other equipment with wheels

There are a few more criminal activity types on the site - and while these indicators are general, it is important to educate the community as a means of preventing some crimes from happening in the first place.

Some of the burglary behaviors may show up in suspicious person reports that may then later be linked to an actual serial burglary pattern.

Location

 One example out of fifteen in the Location Chapter 22:

 Transportation hubs:

• airports and train stations
• bus terminals and stops
• seaports and docks
• taxi stands and ride-sharing pick-up points 

Examples of crimes at transportation hubs:

• theft or pickpocketing in crowded transit stations or buses
• assaults or harassment on public transportation
• drug-related activities in or around transportation hubs
• robberies targeting commuters carrying valuable items
• vandalism or property damage to transit infrastructure

Firearm Trafficking MO Variables

 Example of content in the Firearm Trafficking Chapter 50:

 Firearm Trafficking MO Variables

 Sourcing and Procurement

• Origin of Firearms: Illicit firearms may come from various sources, such as thefts from legal owners, military arsenals, or illegal manufacture.
• Point of Contact: Traffickers may establish contact with corrupt officials, rogue elements in military or police forces, or individuals with access to firearms.
• Documentation and Permits: Fake identification, altered permits, or even legitimate documents obtained through corrupt means are often used in the acquisition process

Storage and Staging

• Safe Houses and Warehousing: After acquisition, firearms are usually stored in hidden or secure locations, often guarded to prevent unwanted attention or seizures.
• Inventory Management: Sophisticated operations often have a detailed inventory system to track the firearms and ammunition, enabling quicker distribution when demand arises.

Transportation

• Transportation Methods: Various means, such as cars, boats, and even commercial flights, are used for moving firearms. Traffickers may use hidden compartments, disguise methods, or transport firearms in parts to avoid detection.
• Routing and Transshipment: Firearms are often moved through multiple points, sometimes even internationally, to obscure their origin and make tracking more difficult.

Sales and Distribution

• End Users: The firearms may be intended for street gangs, organized crime syndicates, insurgents, or terrorists, among others.
• Channels of Sale: Sales may take place through the dark web, face-to-face transactions, or through middlemen who facilitate the trade.
• Pricing and Payment: Prices are determined by demand, scarcity, and risk involved. Payments may be in cash, barter, or digital currency to leave minimal trace.

Support and Protection

• Corruption and Collusion: Bribes and other forms of corruption may be used to facilitate the trade, from the acquisition phase to the point of sale.
• Security Measures: Traffickers often employ various security protocols, including the use of disposable phones, coded language, and encrypted communications, to evade law enforcement.

 Adaptability and Scaling

• Adaptation to Law Enforcement Tactics: Traffickers adapt to law enforcement measures by changing routes, altering methods of concealment, and employing new technologies.
• Networking and Alliances: Traffickers may collaborate with other illicit trades or organized crime groups, sometimes diversifying into other forms of illegal activities.

There are 26 other crime categories in the book Elements of Crime Patterns.

Using ChatGPT-4 to Write This Book

The Writers Guild of America recently negotiated a contract that allows writers to take credit for writing they do based on ChatGPT and other AI language learning models, along with writing they revise if given writing produced by those AI tools. They own their writing with or without using the tools. I took this stance in writing the book Elements of Crime Patterns. I am the book's writer, even if AI greatly helped me. ChatGBT helped me immensely, but I had the concepts I wanted to present first and used AI as a tool to manifest them beyond what I could have done alone.

How did I use ChatGBT-4?

I gave these custom instructions to it:

ChatGBT asks: What would you like ChatGPT to know about you to provide better responses? I am writing a book on elements of crime patterns for law enforcement. The questions I ask are to help me write the book clearly and correctly. This is a reference book and needs to include as much detail as possible. ChatGBT asks: How would you like ChatGPT to respond? I want the book to make sense to police officers as well as researchers and criminal justice students. I do not want opinions. I need facts. I need detailed answers regarding the variables involved.

At first did not set up custom instructions and I was continually being warned about how I should not use the answers to commit crimes; similar dire statements were in each response. That grew very tiresome. These basic instructions to ChatGBT insured the subsequent quetioning started from that standpoint.

Once I got a better handle on it, AI gave a lot of meat to the bones I already had. I had picked all the categories I wanted in the book and added a few that came up as I used the tools. 

(NOTE: Do NOT put your crime or investigative data into ChatGBT-4 or similar tools. Only use the AI tools available on your closed, secure systems - if you have them - and only with legitimate permissions.)

AI did not do much in the way of research for me - I knew what I wanted to write, but I needed to have the ability alone to come up with saying it the way I wanted to say it and retrieve it all. In a very real way, it corroborated my "theory" that we know a lot we do not articulate. Tacit knowledge is a genuine thing - it is what we know without words or speech. We can only hold a minimal number of conscious thoughts in our brains simultaneously, a tiny number compared to the thoughts we actively "know." Often, we do not know what we know because we have not consciously thought out the knowledge. We learn so quickly, and taking the time to acknowledge every bit of learning would waste time - our minds are designed to be efficient. We use mental shortcuts, called heuristics, to think quickly. AI helped me pinpoint what I wanted to say, slow down thinking, and say what we know in order to (hopefully) share a common understanding.

Before easily accessing AI tools, I had done much research (over-researched before my discovery that ChatGPT could help me), but much of the study could not verify the outcome I intended. ChatGPT gave me results I could prove with my genuine subject matter expertise since I knew what was true based on real-world observation and experience. 

When AI did give me the information I did not recognize to be accurate, I researched it to verify it, and if I had doubts, I eliminated the results. It was like sifting, much continual querying to get what I wanted. Then reorganizing, formatting, revising... AI does not spit out an orderly book. Then, I put chapters into both Grammarly AI and MS Word Editor to check for plagiarism, which is very tedious. I was not very concerned with plagiarism because this book is primarily about facts rather than theories, and facts cannot be copyrighted, although the expression and presentation of facts can be copyrighted, as is my book. 

In the second half of the book, I present 27 crime categories. I wanted to show crimes the way I might when I worked as a behavior specialist, where we used antecedents, behaviors, and consequences to show what actions were involved. It took many tries to get AI to finally spit its crimes out in a way that worked for me. As a law enforcement analyst, I had personally worked on 3/4 of the crimes in real life that are in the book, in both minor and significant ways, and taught courses on a few of the other crime categories. There are only 3 or 4 crimes that I had no direct experience with in my law enforcement analyst career but knew about and wanted to include. 

I cited any research I referred to in the footnotes and read a lot more, but I could not find that much that supported the facts in the book. For example - concealment methods are written about in customs border protection cases, but there is no research on saying this is what they are and look for them that I could locate. I did not include my extensive bibliography in the book because I felt it falsely represented as if I used everything; I added the bibliography to this blog so that you may peruse it. It is on the right-hand side of the blog.

I used Scite.ai to help me with citations and Perplexity.ai to locate a few extra resources. I tried other AI resources that I did not find helpful enough to use. 

I decided to self-publish after first submitting a proposal to a publisher (I took it back while waiting for the review process) for several reasons. I wanted the book to be affordable and to keep it more practitioner-based than academic. In August, I found an excellent tool called Atticus that allowed me to format the book for Amazon publishing, and it made that part of the task almost easy. I would not recommend doing what I did - every single thing by myself, including editing. (One reason I decided not to index it besides not thinking it necessary.) The good thing about how I did it is that I can easily correct things and upload new versions that can be printed as the book whenever I want to do so. I have a lot of control.

I could risk doing it all myself because I have nothing to lose in that I am retired and have no career plans. There is nothing to gain, either, because I want nothing for myself - I want to stay retired. The truth is, this book would not leave me alone, and now I have it out of my head, once I let enough people know about the book, I can go back to my idyllic retirement life—another reason why you should not copy me. 

Using AI to write is a wonderful way to feel like you have superpowers. As a former member and short-term President of the Police Futurists International, I have an inclination to want to think about the future. It was a pleasure to use these tools of the future and show what can be done in the present via this book. I encourage everyone to experiment with it!

And I hope you find Elements of Crime Patterns useful.

Read:

Want to Save Your Job From A.I.? Hollywood Screenwriters Just Showed You How by Adam Seth Litwin, associate professor of industrial and labor relations at Cornell University, published in The New York Times on September 29, 2023.

Communication

 One example out of fifteen in "Communication" in Chapter 21:

 Written Communication:

• Handwritten or typed notes left at crime scenes as a form of communication or intimidation
• Anonymous letters sent to victims, law enforcement, or media to claim responsibility or issue threats
• Correspondence between criminals or with accomplices through written letters or notes
• Handwritten notes or letters used to convey messages or threats
• Graffiti or symbols left at crime scenes as a form of communication or identification
• Posters, flyers, or other printed materials used for criminal purposes or to send a message
• Messages or markings left on victims or objects as a signature or form of communication

See the book for the other communication categories! It's not only mobile phones...

Similarities and Anomalies

Both similarities and anomalies play crucial roles in recognizing and identifying crime patterns. 

Similarities, such as consistent modus operandi, geographic location, and victim profiles, often help in linking multiple incidents, suggesting that they are the work of a single offender or criminal group. On the other hand, anomalies in crime data—unusual spikes or patterns that deviate from statistical norms—can serve as red flags that a serial crime pattern may emerge. These could be temporal, spatial, or even cross-jurisdictional anomalies that, when detected, prompt further investigation to either confirm or disprove the existence of a serial pattern. Analyzing similarities and anomalies provides a comprehensive approach to identifying and understanding crime patterns.

Similarities or anomalies may first be noticed in qualitative data rather than through statistical analysis. Review of crime and investigative data by officers or analysts with subject matter expertise may trigger further investigation. The similarities of anomalies may exist across non-integrated datasets or have a basis in unwritten historical, tacit knowledge.

Recognition and Identification of Crime Patterns via Similarities

Modus Operandi (MO): The method used to commit the crime can be a critical factor in identifying a pattern. Law enforcement often looks for similarities in how a crime is executed, such as the tools used, time of day, or specific actions carried out during the crime.

Example: If a series of burglaries occur where the perpetrator enters through the back door and disables the alarm system similarly, it may indicate a single offender or group using a consistent MO.

Geographic Location: Crimes occurring in a concentrated area often indicate a pattern. Offenders may be more comfortable or knowledgeable about a particular locale.

Example: Multiple car thefts happening in the same neighborhood within a short time frame may indicate a pattern.

Victimology: Certain characteristics of the victims, such as age, gender, profession, or lifestyle, can indicate a pattern.

Example: If assaults have occurred against women jogging in parks in the evening, a pattern may be forming around this specific victim profile.

Time Frame: Crimes committed during similar times of the day, days of the week, or even seasons can indicate a pattern.

Example: A series of robberies occurring on Friday evenings may suggest that the perpetrator exploits a particular vulnerability associated with that time frame.

Recognition and Identification of Crime Patterns via Anomalies

Temporal Anomalies: Sudden spikes or dips in crime rates within a specific time frame may indicate a serial pattern. For example, a sequence of related crimes occurring in a narrow time window can create a noticeable "peak" in the data.

Example: If a jurisdiction typically reports one or two burglaries per week but suddenly experiences five burglaries over two days, this temporal anomaly could indicate a serial burglar is active.

Spatial Anomalies: This cluster may indicate a serial pattern when a specific geographic area experiences an unusual concentration of similar crimes. Such a spatial anomaly often appears as a 'hotspot' on crime mapping software.

Example: If car thefts are usually spread throughout a city but suddenly concentrate in a specific neighborhood, this spatial anomaly could be the work of a serial car thief operating in that area.

Victimology Anomalies: If data reveal an atypical concentration of victims sharing specific characteristics (such as age, occupation, and gender), this may signify a targeted pattern by a serial offender.

Example: A series of attacks on women who work late shifts in a specific industry within a particular area may represent an anomaly in victimology, suggesting a serial offender.

Cross-jurisdictional Anomalies: Sometimes, an anomaly can appear when data from multiple jurisdictions are analyzed collectively. Crimes that appear unrelated in isolated datasets may show a pattern when combined.

Example: If multiple nearby towns each experience a minor uptick in home invasions, the anomaly may only become apparent when these datasets are combined, potentially revealing a serial offender operating across jurisdictions.

Anomalies in Crime Type: An unusual increase in a specific type of crime or modus operandi within a short period could indicate a serial pattern.

Example: A sudden increase in arson incidents using a specific incendiary device could indicate a serial arsonist at work.

Mixed Anomalies: Sometimes, an anomaly may be a combination of spatial, temporal, and other factors.

Example: A spike in robberies occurring near ATMs late at night over a weekend could be a mixed anomaly indicating a serial pattern.

Robbery Patterns

From the book:

Robbery serial patterns are more easily identified than most crime patterns. A robbery has a witness who can provide information on the offender(s) description, approach, and characteristics, as well as vehicle description (sometimes), the weapon(s) used, exact time and place, and the property was taken. Thus, commonalities are easier to find for crime pattern identification.

Robberies were my favorite crime to analyze when I worked as a crime analyst (1997-2007) because they were easiest to recognize and early identification was important because of threat of injury or death to victims. Shortly after I left that job, I wrote blog posts on another, inactive blog, with examples of various types of crime patterns. Here are the robbery patterns from back then, when they were fresh on my mind:  

Pattern: Purse Snatching (Robbery)

Perpetrators: mostly males but sometimes females, often lone criminals but also work in groups

Victims: primarily females of any age

Locations: primarily streets, sometimes in other public places 

Times: any time, most often when victim is alone without other observers nearby

Approach Methods: may come from behind, may use weapon, may knock victim to ground

Weapons: may use a weapon or threat of weapon, may assault victim

Tools: may cut purse straps

Vehicles/Transportation Routes: may target victims waiting at bus stops, train stations, on routes to bank or shopping

Stolen Goods: purse, contents of wallet, cash, credit cards

Method: a crime of opportunity, serial purse snatchers may use same MO

Motive: quick cash/profit, sometimes to feed drug habit

Query Terms: purse, bag, knapsack, handbag, strap

Suggestions: Track all incidents of purse snatching robberies as these tend to be serial crimes. Track all persons arrested for these crimes in case a series emerges where they are the perpetrators. Note larceny/theft of an unattended purse is not considered a robbery.

***

Pattern: Carjacking

Perpetrators: suspects in need of quick transportation, suspects who want a vehicle to take to be stripped, suspects who are in gangs, may be organized crime group stealing high end vehicles to export overseas

Victims: may be innocent persons, sometimes related to drug buying/dealing - victims who trade cars for a few hours to a drug dealer and call it a carjacking when they report the loss of their vehicle

Locations: more likely in large urban areas, near drug houses, at intersections when a vehicle is stopped, at gas stations, in parking lots 

Times: various times of day

Entry/Approach Methods: may bump car with another car to initiate opportunity, may be hiding and attack victim

Weapons: often occur at gunpoint or threat of gun not displayed

Vehicles/Transportation Routes: may use vehicle in crime and discard it in their own neighborhood

Stolen Goods: vehicle, sometimes rob victim of wallet/purse/belongings

Method: a carjacking involves robbery of a vehicle while people are in the vehicle and is often a violent crime, sometimes victims are kidnapped as well, in rarer instances crime may lead to sexual assault or murder

Motive: to obtain a vehicle, also may be a need for power, or a need to escape a scene or obtain a vehicle to use in a crime/to commit a crime

Query terms: vehicle, car, robbery, carjacked, carjacking, stopped at light (or sign), fled in victim's vehicle (or car)

Suggestions: It is important to track all carjackings in your area to uncover any sort of patterns; query your databases for stolen cars AND robbery to find all incidents of carjacking; track all known carjackers in your jurisdiction.

***

Pattern: Bank Robberies

Perpetrators: variety of perps, from inexperienced (usually drug addicts) to professional (less common), may work alone or in teams

Victims: financial institutions, banks and credit unions

Locations: inside bank – ATM (automatic teller) crime may be involved as well

Times: varies, but serial robbers often follow a pattern in time of day, day of week

Entry/Approach Methods: perps may stake out banks, target banks with easy escape routes, generally robbers just walk into bank

Weapons: often use note with threat of weapon and no weapon is seen, sometimes gun is seen

Vehicles/Transportation Routes: vary, banks in strip malls and/or near highways may be targeted as more vulnerable, may have get-away car accomplice

Stolen Goods: cash – often with dye-pack

Method: suspect may ‘case’ bank undetected prior to robbery, may wear disguise, may bring bag for cash – type of bag may be similar in series so is something to track, may jump over counter, may force victims to the ground, may target same type bank branches, tends toward becoming a serial crime if suspect has success, may be multiple suspects

Motive: cash

Query terms: bank, credit union, safe, unlock, alarm, vault, safety deposit, deposit, names of banks

Suggestions: Map all banks in your jurisdiction, including credit unions. If possible, get data on ATMs, track all known bank robbers on parole in your jurisdiction – know their MO. Familiarize yourself with bank robbery prevention techniques.

***

Pattern: Cab/Taxi /Ride Share Driver Victims

Perpetrators: usually lone males, sometimes two or more males

Victims: cab/taxi/rideshare drivers

Locations: usually in a city

Times: late at night, infrequently in daytime

Entry/Approach Methods: when fare is dropped off, victim is robbed by the fare – sometimes robbery occurs during the ride

Weapons: more often gunpoint, sometimes knifepoint

Vehicles/Transportation Routes: suspects will more often be let out of cab at an intersection rather than a particular address

Stolen Goods: cash, sometimes wallet

Method: robbery occurs during normal course of cab ride – suspect calls cab or hails cab or orders ride share and then robs victim, suspect may wear a disguise, sometimes violent 

Motive: crime of opportunity, sometimes becomes a series of crime

Query terms: cab, taxi, fare, driver, meter, Uber, Lyft, rides hare, backseat

Suggestions: Track all robberies of this type in one file to note a series of crimes early. Analyze by company, by time of day, by geography, by weapon, by suspect(s) description, by victimology (old driver? young? race?). Track where rides begin and where they end. 

"Suspects wanted in at least 24 rideshare robberies" - click to see video 

Focus on the Observable Behavior

I chose to focus the book Elements of Crime Patterns on behavior, and made infrequent mention of motives. When analyzing data to uncover serial crime patterns in tactical policing, thinking too much about the psychology of the offender can distract from the real need to search data and discover facts. It is my view that, in the early stages, focusing on offender psychology is a mistake because the ability to apply the inferences made in the profile to find the offender is near impossible. A psychological profile is often not helpful until suspects are identified. In my opinion, even in research it makes more sense to focus on the actual behavior of offenders because that is where prevention mechanisms can be better applied. For example, environmental designs can be modified to make a type of criminal behavior more difficult.

From ChatGPT:

Advantages of Objectively Focusing on Behavior in a Crime

Immediate Applicability: Behavioral analysis can be used immediately for solving the crime at hand. Behavioral patterns help in predicting the offender's next move, which is crucial for law enforcement.

Factual Basis: This approach relies on tangible evidence and observed actions, making it less speculative and often more admissible in a court of law.

Wider Scope: Behavioral patterns are often common across multiple cases, which may help law enforcement in linking crimes and identifying serial offenders.

Time-Efficient: Less time is generally needed to analyze behavioral evidence than to construct a psychological profile, making it more practical during time-sensitive investigations.

Less Expertise Required: While some training is necessary, understanding behavioral evidence does not generally require the specialized knowledge needed to interpret psychological data.

Data-Driven: The approach can be more empirical and quantifiable, making it easier to use with modern data analytics tools for crime mapping, pattern recognition, etc.

Lower Risk of Bias: Focusing on behavior is generally more objective and may minimize risks related to cultural or social biases that can sometimes affect psychological profiling.

In behavioral analysis, variables often include:

Type of offense (violent, property, etc.)

Modus operandi (the methods used in committing the crime)

Choice of victim

Location and timing

Evidence left at the scene

Advantages of Developing a Psychological Profile

In-depth Understanding: Psychological profiles offer a deeper insight into the motivations behind a crime, which can be useful for preventative measures and in understanding criminal behavior on a broader level.

Narrowing Suspects: Psychological profiles can help law enforcement to narrow down a list of potential suspects by identifying specific characteristics or traits.

Long-Term Strategy: These profiles are often useful in investigations that span a long period or require a deep understanding of the criminal’s motives.

Interdisciplinary: Profiling often brings in expertise from psychology, sociology, and criminology, making it a comprehensive approach.

Qualitative Insights: Provides rich, qualitative data that can be useful for academic research and can complement other forms of investigation.

Useful for Negotiation: Understanding the psychology of a suspect can be extremely valuable in situations that require negotiation, such as hostage scenarios.

Human Element: It may help to predict future behavior and even possibly lead to rehabilitation by understanding the underlying psychological triggers.

In psychological profiling, variables can include:

Psychological traits

Background and upbringing

Social and economic status

Emotional triggers

Mental health status

Confirmation Bias and Crime Patterns

The online Oxford Language Dictionary defines confirmation bias as "the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one's existing beliefs or theories." Since it is impossible to eliminate one's existing beliefs or theories, the only workaround is to expand the ability to see things in other ways.

I explore some self-explanatory variables for crime pattern recognition in the book Elements of Crime Patterns. Anyone working at the ground level will see that these variables are how we might begin to recognize a serial crime in the data. They are common sense and I documented them because they have not been documented broadly as existing variables to identify. I used these variables daily to look for crime patterns, and many analysts do that. Many of these variables will mean nothing to a researcher, so when reading the book, they could dismiss them. Some researchers might find variables in this section to explore for new research. For example, is there a correlation between masked robbers and the level of violence used in crimes? Many questions could be developed and explored. Whether they matter is another story.

The officer collecting information at the street level and the investigator following up with more information-gathering have needs that conflict with researchers and policy-makers. They want to get their jobs done and may focus more on finding a charge that will stick or getting to a higher-priority call or case. In documenting information, each individual will decide what they believe is essential, which will vary. The quality of data collection suffers because of this.

From The Criminal Investigation Process, Volume III, Observations and Analysis (click on link), October 1975, page 152: 

Things may have improved since 1975, but with over 18,000 law enforcement agencies in the United States and little training on the importance of uncovering crime patterns, including the understanding of elements of modus operandi, it is likely that much information falls to the wayside and is lost forever.

So, where does confirmation bias apply here? You are unlikely to find what you do not know much about or value. 

Researchers and policy-makers will see the need to understand aggregate problems to find lasting solutions and distribute resources in the best places. They have different objectives than those on the ground.

The citizen who does not want their car broken into will value the agency that uncovers a specific car break-in pattern involving a drug addict stealing from many vehicles in their neighborhood before their car is broken into. They want the police to study a seemingly urgent matter that a researcher or policy-maker is less concerned with. But if the researcher or policy-maker is that citizen, they will want the same.

Those working in law enforcement agencies will have biases based on their expertise. The statistician sees things in terms of statistics, the Excel expert sees the application of spreadsheets, the GIS expert sees geography and maps, and the investigative or intelligence analyst sees research on specific criminals and their actions. 

How we focus on crime patterns will depend on where we stand in the world. But once we know our own viewpoint, we can try on others' views and appreciate their value.

Having more than one person or department analyze data can provide different perspectives that may help offset individual biases. Assembling a team with diverse backgrounds and perspectives can be an effective countermeasure against confirmation bias.

Additional reading: Knowledge management, criminal investigation and the Basic Policing Model: an integrated approach towards effective detection (click on link)

Elements of Crime Patterns

I finally wrote the book I had in mind for decades: Elements of Crime Patterns is now available in paperback, hardcover, and Kindle on Amazon. I will use this blog to offer tips to think about, recognize, and identity crime patterns using qualitative data. This blog supplements the book and vice versa.

Here I will explore a concept that I call, in my mind, "qualitative crime pattern identification." It is a means to uncover a specific crime series in a specific jurisdiction by those tasked to do so - police officers of various ranks and law enforcement analysts such as those with the title of crime analyst. It extends to those investigating crimes, any crimes that might be committed by the same offender.

There are a number of ways to link serial crimes. Physical evidence is the best, most reliable way. Since it is often not available, we must find other ways. First, we must recognize crime patterns, and then we can identify their specifics.

From the book:

In the context of crime patterns in law enforcement, recognizing and identifying have distinct meanings:

Recognizing refers to perceiving or acknowledging something based on previous knowledge or familiarity. Recognizing involves the capability of law enforcement officers, investigators, or analysts to identify patterns, trends, or behaviors that they have encountered before or have been trained to recognize. It's about seeing familiar patterns and understanding their significance in the context of crime investigation and prevention. Experienced police officers, investigators, and analysts recognize specific modus operandi associated with crime patterns and sometimes even particular criminals. This is their on-the-job learning. By simply reading this book, you will gain similar knowledge.

Identifying goes further and involves determining or naming something or someone based on specific characteristics or information. Identifying means pinpointing a particular pattern, suspect, or element based on the available data and evidence. It can include identifying  modus operandi, suspect descriptions, or evidence linking crimes together. Users of this book can take the specific information contained in it and actively search for existing real-world crime patterns. 

Using common sense, it is can seem easy to connect crimes with qualitative data - police agencies do it everyday. A man wearing a red jacket robs several McDonald's restaurants in the same city on Friday nights four weeks in a row. It is not rocket science. These crimes are likely committed by the same guy.

Yet, qualitative data in and outside of police reports holds various, often unexplored treasures in the form of clues to the existence of crimes being committed by the same offender or group of offenders. 

Any crime can have a serial offender, although we don't often think in those terms. This blog will explore the 27 crime categories included in the book, and more. Stay tuned.