All crimes occur in time, and when those crimes form patterns, they are often referred to as temporal crime patterns. While time is an objectively measurable phenomenon, temporal crime patterns have many nuances and include other elements, such as location, affected by weather conditions and demographics.
Examples of temporal crime patterns:
Spike in residential burglaries during weekdays when homes are typically unoccupied due to work or school.
Spike in commercial burglaries on weekends when businesses are closed and areas around them are deserted.
Rise in thefts from vehicles during warm summer months when people leave windows open or belongings unattended.
Spike in vehicle thefts during cold winter mornings when owners warm up their cars and leave them unattended.
Surge in assault incidents around closing time at bars and nightclubs.
Increase in incidents of public disorder, including fights or disturbances, during major sporting events or festivals.
Rise in bicycle thefts during summer when more people are out cycling.
Surge in retail thefts during the holiday season, particularly in the weeks leading up to major gift-giving holidays.
Examples of Time Variables
Day of the Week:
weekdays
weekends
specific weekdays
Time of Day:
specific time
morning
midday
afternoon
evening
nighttime
late night
specific time range
daylight hours
darkness
dawn or dusk
Day of Month:
specific days of the month
beginning or end of the month paycheck distribution
specific days of the month paycheck distribution
moon phases (full moon, new moon, etc.)
Time Duration of Criminal Activity:
brief incidents (snatch-and-grab thefts)
extended incidents (burglaries, hostage situations)
patterns of repeated incidents over time (serial crimes)
patterns when one cannot pinpoint the exact time
Seasonal/Periodic Patterns:
winter
spring
summer
fall/autumn
holidays and special occasions
travel seasons
school calendar
tax season
inventory periods for businesses
Yearly Time Patterns:
significant dates or anniversaries criminals choose to commit crimes
long-term trends in specific types of crimes
comparisons of crime rates over time
School-Related Time:
before school hours
during school hours
after school hours
school breaks and holidays
Travel/Traffic Times:
morning rush hour
evening rush hour
holiday travel peaks
public transportation schedules
Shift Work/Shift Changes:
day shift
evening shift
night shift
rotating or irregular shifts
workplace shift changes
law enforcement shift changes
security guard shift changes
Events and Gatherings:
festivals and parades
sporting events and matches
concerts and performances
political rallies or demonstrations
significant events for specific cultures or religions
peak tourist seasons in specific areas
Seasonal or Weather-Related Factors:
daylight saving time changes
temperature extremes (very hot or very cold weather)
severe weather conditions (storms, heavy rain)
basic weather descriptions: clear skies, rainy, snowy, foggy, windy, hot, cold
long-term changes in climate leading to social and economic disruptions
longer-lasting effects of natural disasters, such as displacement and increased vulnerability
Time of Scheduled Deliveries:
postal or courier services
freight deliveries
online shopping deliveries
Opening and Closing Hours:
retail store opening or closing times
bar and restaurant opening or closing times
office building opening or closing times
Time of Routine Activities:
school drop-off or pick-up times
commuting hours
peak hours for bars, clubs, and restaurants
opening and closing times
ATM cash replenishment times
Time of Critical Infrastructure Maintenance
power outage or maintenance schedules
road or transportation network maintenance schedules
Time-Based Vulnerabilities
walking alone at night
when security measures are lax
when emergency services cannot access an area
strikes, changes in public transport routes/times, or major infrastructure projects
periods of economic instability
pandemics and public health crises
Absence in Time from Place:
patterns of no criminal activity when a prolific offender is incarcerated
crime pattern activity ceased because offender moved away or was away for a span of time
Significant Dates or Anniversaries Examples:
April 20th: This is Adolf Hitler's birthday and has been used by white supremacist groups and other far-right extremists as a day of significance.
April 19th: This date marks the anniversary of the 1995 Oklahoma City bombing and the end of the Waco siege in 1993. Some anti-government or extremist groups may view this date as significant.
June 17th: On this date in 2015, a white supremacist killed nine African Americans in a church in Charleston, South Carolina. This date may hold significance for those motivated by racial hatred.
July 22nd: On this date in 2011, a far-right extremist in Norway killed 77 people in a bombing and mass shooting. This date may hold significance for far-right extremists.
August 12th: This date marks the anniversary of the 2017 "Unite the Right" rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, where a white supremacist drove his car into a crowd of counter-protestors, killing one.
September 11th: Known primarily for the 2001 attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, this date may hold significance for various extremist groups.
Dates associated with religious holidays or observances: Perpetrators may choose dates that are significant to the religion of the group they are targeting. This could include Christian holidays like Christmas or Easter, Jewish holidays like Passover or Yom Kippur, Islamic holidays like Eid al-Fitr or Eid al-Adha, or any other religious observances.
Dates associated with cultural or national holidays: This could include days like Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States, which may be targeted by those motivated by racial hatred, or LGBTQ+ Pride Month in June, which could be targeted by those motivated by anti-LGBTQ+ bias.
Reporting and Recording Issues to Consider
Police reports may only include one field to record the time of a crime, but all crimes occur in a period, even if it is merely seconds from the time the criminal event started to the time it ended. Even if a "start" and "end" time is on a crime report, it may not accurately reflect the time. If a summer cottage was burglarized sometime in the off-season, the actual time and duration (how long it took to commit the crime) are unknown if there are no witnesses or video. If someone is robbed by force, they are more likely to be able to provide a beginning and end time to the robbery, and it is possible then to calculate the duration of the crime.
Timelines
In crimes that have steps that take place over time, calculating the time of the crime is more complex. For example, making counterfeit money involves getting the materials and equipment, making the money, and then distributing the money. Investigators and analysts prepare timelines when investigating cases with various steps.
A timeline visually represents significant events in the order in which they occurred. It displays events in chronological order for investigations and crime pattern analysis.
A timeline is helpful in various ways:
Crime linkage: If the same individual or group is committing multiple crimes, a timeline can help investigators see patterns or trends in the times and dates of those crimes. Potentially it can help predict when and where the next crime might occur, aiding in prevention.
Incident progression: A timeline helps viewers understand how a crime unfolded. For example, in a kidnapping case, a timeline might start with the victim's last known location and then include times of relevant camera footage, phone calls, and other events that provide insight into what happened.
Pattern recognition: Looking at crimes on a timeline can help reveal patterns that might not be immediately apparent. For example, a rash of burglaries might seem random, but when laid out on a timeline, it might become evident that they happen on the same day of the week or at the same time.
Correlation with other events: By overlaying crime timelines with other relevant circumstances, investigators can sometimes identify potential triggers or deterrents for crimes. For example, a decrease in crime might correlate with increased police patrols, or an increase might correlate with an economic downturn or significant societal event.
Evidence correlation: Investigators can use timelines to link suspects to the crime scene or victim. For example, phone records, credit card transactions, or GPS tracking data can provide time-stamped evidence of a suspect's activities and movements.
Overall, timelines are a tool that helps provide a chronological perspective, which is critical in investigations and crime analysis. They help investigators visualize data over time, see patterns, establish links, and provide a holistic view of the incidents in question.
Trends
While trends are about change in a general direction, change occurs in time.
Examples of trend crime patterns:
the trend of iPhone thefts decreased when better security features (the Apple Activation Lock) made them less appealing to steal
as the price of copper increased in 2008, thefts of copper surged enough that the FBI warned that the trend was a threat to the critical infrastructure
Factors That Affect Crime
The FBI lists factors that are known to affect the volume and type of crime occurring from place to place:
Population density and degree of urbanization
Variations in the composition of the population, particularly youth concentration
Stability of the population in residents' mobility, commuting patterns, and transient factors
Modes of transportation and highway systems
Economic conditions, including median income, poverty level, and job availability
Cultural factors and educational, recreational, and religious characteristics
Family conditions such as divorce and family cohesiveness
Climate
Effective strength of law enforcement agencies
Administrative and investigative emphases of law enforcement
Policies of other criminal justice system components (prosecutorial, judicial, correctional, and probational)
Citizens' attitudes toward crime
Crime reporting practices of the citizenry
Demographics and Crime Patterns
Demographics can help in crime pattern analysis in the following ways:
Statistical data relating to the population and particular groups is called demographics. These groups include age, sex, income level, race, education, employment status, and other variables.
• Identifying crime rates: Different demographic groups can have different crime rates. For example, crime rates can be higher among young adults than older adults. Identifying these differences can help law enforcement allocate resources more effectively.
• Understanding victimology: Demographics can help understand who is more likely to become a victim of certain types of crime, which can inform preventive measures and support services.
• Predictive policing: By studying the demographics of areas where crimes are most often committed, law enforcement can make educated predictions about where crimes may occur. This can help in deploying resources more effectively.
• Risk factors identification: Certain demographic factors might correlate with higher crime rates, including poverty, lack of education, or unemployment. Understanding these risk factors can inform broader social policies aimed at reducing crime.
• Understanding perpetrator demographics: Just as demographics can help understand victimology, they can also provide insight into common characteristics of perpetrators. This can assist in focusing investigations.
• Community policing strategies: Understanding the demographic makeup of a community can help police departments develop tailored community policing strategies. This might include outreach programs, community meetings, or other plans to build trust and cooperation between the police and the community they serve
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