Gregory Saville:

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Qualitative Crime Pattern Identification

Monday, July 1, 2024

July: Robbery Month and Free Book Chapter

About Robbery Month

This month I will be covering the elements of robbery patterns in depth and, by the end of the month, I will have covered the elements of robbery patterns extensively, including examples of serial robberies and related resources for readers.

Robbery serial patterns are more easily identified than most crime patterns. A robbery has a witness who often can provide information on the offender(s) description, approach, and characteristics, as well as vehicle description (if relevant), the weapon(s) used, exact time and place, and what specific property was taken. Thus, commonalities are easier to find for crime pattern identification.

This month I will present the elements of robbery patterns in various ways, which will have some repetition. This repetition will help you look at the variables from different angles. I use material from my book as well as the results from LLMs such as Chat-GPT and Claude.

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This is the short chapter "Robbery" in the book "Elements of Crime Patterns:"

Robbery is the unlawful taking of property from another person through force or intimidation.

Robbery serial patterns are more easily identified than most crime patterns. A robbery has a witness who can provide information on the offender(s) description, approach, and characteristics, as well as vehicle description, the weapon(s) used, exact time and place, and the property was taken. Thus, commonalities are easier to find for crime pattern identification.

Robbery MO Variables

Objectives:

Financial Gain: The most common motive is the immediate acquisition of money or valuable goods.

Resource Funding: In organized crime or terrorist activities, robbery can serve as a way to fund other operations.

Intimidation or Power: Some robbers are motivated by the psychological gain involved in risking and confrontation.

Planning and Organization:

Target Selection: Whether targeting an individual, a residence, or a commercial establishment, robbers may scout locations for vulnerabilities.

Timing: Robberies often happen when victims are most vulnerable—early mornings, late nights, or during particular events.

Accomplices: More organized robberies might involve multiple individuals with defined roles such as lookouts, drivers, and the primary robber.

Technical Framework:

Weapons: The use of weapons, like guns or knives, is common to intimidate victims into compliance.

Disguise: Masks, fake uniforms, or other disguises may be employed to conceal identity.

Communication: In-group communication may involve untraceable phones, coded language, or hand signals.

Execution:

Approach Method: This may vary from a stealthy, surprise attack to a confrontational approach.

Escape Plan: A well-thought-out escape route or vehicle may be arranged in advance.

Diversion Tactics: Distractions or other diversions may be used.

Intermediaries:

Fencing Operations: Stolen goods are often quickly sold or traded through intermediaries.

Financiers: In some cases, particularly in organized crime, a financier may back the operation in return for a cut of the proceeds.

Legal Evasion:

Changing MO: To avoid detection, a robber may change their methods or targets periodically.

Alibis: False alibis may be prepared in advance to deflect suspicion.

Counter-Surveillance: Measures might be taken to detect and avoid police or security presence.

Aftermath:

Laundering: Cash or valuable items may be laundered through various means to make them difficult to trace.

Relocation: Perpetrators might leave the area or even the country to avoid capture, especially after high-stakes robberies.


Serial Robbery Type Examples

ATM Robberies: These involve targeting individuals withdrawing money from ATMs. It can be done opportunistically or  by carefully observing a target. Serial offenders might choose the same type of location (isolated, poorly lit) and time (usually late at night) for their crimes. Series of these crimes usually follow a pattern based on the types and locations of targeted ATMs.

Bank Robberies: These include robberies of credit unions, location is often in a commercial or shopping district, mostly male offenders who target branch offices at the counter, offender often presents a note to the bank teller that demands money and implies or explicitly states that the robber is armed, may exploit knowledge of bank procedures and layouts. 

 Carjacking: This is stealing a person's vehicle while they're in it, most often one person in the car, offender most often has a weapon, may target specific models of cars, locations, or times of day, more likely to occur at or near person’s home, males, and females equally targeted. 

Cash-in-Transit Robberies: Offenders target vehicles moving cash or other valuables between locations, may use force and/or weapons to overpower the drivers, possibly organized crime group. 

Convenience Store Robberies: These may involve one or two individuals who rob small retail stores during late-night hours when fewer witnesses are around, may use firearms or other weapons, and typically target cash registers or safe boxes. May have a repeat offense pattern of location, time, and modus operandi, often armed robberies, due to the late operating hours and often minimal security measures, may work quickly, threatening staff, and take cash from registers or safes

Delivery Person: Delivery persons are often alone and may be more susceptible when carrying goods or cash. The offender intercepts the delivery person at the delivery point, or earlier, sometimes posing as a customer.

Delivery Truck Robberies/Hijackings: This form of robbery involves the interception and robbery of delivery trucks; criminals often operate in teams and have inside information about delivery routes and schedules.

Gas Station Robberies: Criminals often target gas stations due to the consistent cash flow and often minimal security. Serial robbers might target stations along specific highways or regions, and usually, act quickly, often armed. Serial robbers frequently target gas stations because they're often open late and staffed by a single clerk. 

Home Invasions: This involves breaking into houses when they are occupied, often threatening and sometimes assaulting residents and stealing valuables. The serial home invader may prefer a specific neighborhood or type of home and often develops a consistent method of entry and escape. They may use a ruse to gain entry.

Liquor Store Robberies: Like convenience store robberies, these target small liquor stores. These crimes might follow patterns concerning time (often after dark), location (isolated areas), and method (quick, sometimes violent).

Pharmacy Robberies: Criminals might target pharmacies for prescription drugs to use or sell. Serial pharmacy robbers may have a consistent strategy, such as presenting fraudulent prescriptions before resorting to threats or violence and may target chains in similar locations. They may also use disguises or wear hats and sunglasses to avoid being recognized by CCTV cameras.

Purse Snatching: This involves stealing women's purses directly from their persons. Serial purse snatchers might target specific locations (like shopping malls or parking lots) and use consistent methods. Commonalities in approach method can help link crimes.

Restaurant Robberies: These occur in restaurants, especially fast-food restaurants, often at closing time when the day's earnings are still on the premises. Serial restaurant robbers might target the same chain or similar types of establishments, often with a consistent strategy. 

Retail Store: These involve robbers who specialize in specific types of retail stores, such as electronics or jewelry stores, where stolen items may be resold easily in the black markets.

Street Robberies: This involves robbing individuals in public spaces, typically involving a threat of violence. Serial muggers might target specific types of victims (tourists, older individuals) or certain locations, often late at night. 

Taxi Driver  Robberies: Taxi drivers are targeted because they have contact with many strangers or people they do not know well, often work in high-crime areas, may carry cash with them in an unsecured manner and handle money as payment, usually work alone, often go to, or through, isolated locations, often work late at night or early in the morning . With ride-share alternatives available, taxi driver robberies may be less likely; ride share drivers are also targeted for robbery. Offenders can create fake profiles to use their services and target them. 



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