Thank you

Thank you for reading this blog, which mainly consists of excerpts of my book "Elements of Crime Patterns." 

If you are interested in more, consider buying the book! :-)

Best of luck in your search for crime patterns! 

Group Affiliation

The offender(s) responsible for crimes in a pattern may have group affiliations that offer clues regarding modus operandi, background, and location. Group affiliation can be broken down into two categories: non-criminal and criminal. Those lines may blur when, for example, an offender is in a family group that also, as a family, engages in criminal behavior.

While we most often think in terms of group affiliation when trying to understand, investigate, and apprehend the offender, it is also useful to think of the victim's group affiliations in order to understand why they might be targeted by an offender. 

Social network analysis of criminal group affiliation can reveal more offenders involved in the patterned criminal activity and provide clues to their roles.

Non-Criminal Group Affiliation

Employment/Occupational Groups: Includes workplaces and groups related to professions and occupations (such as unions) – knowing where an offender works offers clues into their schedule, skill set, and possibly co-offenders. Victims may be selected because of occupation, such as realtors showing homes while alone being targeted for violent crimes. 

Educational Institutions: Includes schools, colleges, vocational training centers, alumni networks, enrollment status, and attendance – knowing an offender's schedule based on classes they attend can be helpful in an investigation. Victims may be selected for harassment because they attended a certain school and a disgruntled former classmate stalks them. Fraternities or sororities may be of interest.

Religious Organizations: Be careful not to stereotype based on religion, but consider how an offender's connection to a religious group may inform their actions. Victims are sometimes targeted for hate crimes based on religion.

Social Clubs and Recreational Groups: Includes sports clubs, hobby groups, and meetup groups – offenders may meet other co-offenders or target victims in such groups.

Family Groups: Includes family ties, family circles, extended families – these relationships may offer insights into domestic or organized crime.

Geographic Communities: Includes neighborhood area and housing complexes and the contexts – offenders may also be victims in high crime areas. 

Online Communities: Includes online forums and social media groups – offender participation may reveal ideologies, planning, and criminal contacts. Victims may be selected through the relative anonymity offered to offenders online.

Political or Activist Groups: These are usually non-criminal but may engage in illegal activities as a form of protest or expression. Victims may be targeted because of their affiliations with these groups.

Military or Paramilitary Groups: Veterans and active duty personnel may have particular sets of skills or experiences that could be relevant to certain types of offenses. 

Healthcare or Therapeutic Groups: Includes addiction or recovery groups, healthcare programs, and therapy sessions – participation in such groups may provide insight into the offender's motivations or capabilities.

Cultural Organizations: Includes cultural or ethnic clubs, societies, or groups –  may offer context for better understanding an offender or victim.

Volunteer Organizations: Includes volunteer groups and charitable organizations – may provide an understanding of the offender's  or victim's life.

Criminal Group Affiliation

Different types of criminal groups vary in their scale of operation—local, national, or global—as well as in their methods, aims, and structures. An offender's affiliation in a criminal group provides insight into possible activities within a specific crime pattern. 

Street Gangs

Scale: Local

Activities: Drug distribution, robbery, assault, turf wars

Identification Methods: Tattoos, graffiti, clothing, hand signs, language, known associates, hangout areas, territories, informants, specific criminal behavior

Drug Cartels

Scale: Global

Activities: Production, transportation, and distribution of illegal drugs

Identification Methods: Financial investigations, surveillance, wiretapping, undercover operations

Human Trafficking Rings

Scale: Global

Activities: Forced labor, sex trafficking, organ trafficking

Identification Methods: Financial investigations, surveillance, wiretapping, undercover operations

Mafia or Mob

Scale: National to Global

Activities: Drug trafficking, extortion, gambling, money laundering

Identification Methods: Financial investigations, surveillance, wiretapping, undercover operations

Triads

Scale: Global

Activities: Drug trafficking, extortion, human trafficking, illegal gambling

Identification Methods: Financial investigations, surveillance, wiretapping, undercover operations

Syndicates

Scale: Global

Activities: Drug trafficking, human smuggling, arms smuggling, fraud

Identification Methods: Financial investigations, surveillance, wiretapping, undercover operations

Counterfeit Networks

Scale: Global

Activities: Production and distribution of counterfeit goods

Identification Methods: Financial investigations, surveillance, wiretapping, undercover operations

Terrorist Organizations

Scale: Global

Activities: Acts of terror, bombings, assassinations

Identification Methods: Intelligence agencies, online communications monitoring, financial transactions, travel patterns, international law enforcement collaboration, public tips

Extremist Ideological Groups

Scale: National

Activities: Promotion of extremist beliefs, sometimes violent

Identification Methods: Informants, online activity, social media, rallies, extremist literature, open expression of beliefs

Financial Crime Networks

Scale: Global

Activities: Fraud, money laundering, insider trading, cybercrime

Identification Methods: Forensic accounting, business records, insider reports, whistleblowers, regulatory agencies, financial transactions

Organized Cybercrime Groups

Scale: Global

Activities: Hacking, identity theft, ransomware, data breaches

Identification Methods: Cyber forensic tools, online forums, digital footprints, dark web surveillance, digital forensics, IP tracking, technology company collaboration, international collaboration

Outlaw Motorcycle Clubs

Scale: National

Activities: Drug trafficking, weapons smuggling, extortion, violence

Identification Methods: Monitoring meetings, traffic stops, known associates, specific activities, undercover operations, community informants, insignias, patches, bike styles, gathering locations

Prison Gangs

Scale: Local to National

Activities: Various, often continue after incarceration

Identification Methods: Prison behavior, tattoos, hand signals, surveillance, communication monitoring, interviews, correctional officer collaboration, informants

Organized Theft Rings

Scale: National to Global

Activities: Large-scale thefts targeting valuable assets

Identification Methods: Surveillance, informants, specialized expertise within the group

Criminal groups can be local, national, or global.  It is important to learn what types of organized crime groups might be operating in your jurisdiction. 

Offender Group Affiliation Example Variables: 

cartel, cybercrime network, drug trafficking organization, gang, hate group, human trafficking network, Italian Mafia, military, militia group, motorcycle gang, organized crime group, prison gang, professional group, Russian Mafia, school, street gang, team, terrorist group, trade union, Triad, weapons trafficking group, white-collar crime group, white supremacist group, Yakuza 

Further Reading: 

Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime. Global Organized Crime Index 2021. Available at: https://ocindex.net/assets/downloads/global-ocindex-report.pdf

Global Investigative Journalism Network. Reporter’s Guide to Investigating Organized Crime. Available online at: https://gijn.org/reporters-guide-to-investigating-organized-crime/

Victim/Offender Relationships

The focus in crime pattern analysis is generally on stranger-on-stranger crimes, but there are crime patterns that involve other relationships. These relationships are part of the crime pattern.

Relationship Examples

Stranger Crimes:

Random Stranger: Neither the victim nor the offender has any prior knowledge of the other.

Non-Random Stranger: The offender targets a particular type of victim (e.g., based on appearance, routine, or lifestyle) but has no personal connection to them.

Acquaintance Crimes:

Casual Acquaintance: The victim and offender have met before but have a superficial relationship.

Known Acquaintance: The victim and offender have some level of familiarity with each other but are not close.

Friend or Neighbor: The victim and the offender are friends, colleagues, or neighbors, with a relatively established relationship.

Intimate Partner Crimes:

Current Partner: The victim and offender are in a current romantic relationship.

Former Partner: The victim and offender were previously in a romantic relationship.

Familial Crimes:

Parent-Child: The victim or offender is a parent or guardian of the other.

Sibling: The victim and offender are siblings.

Extended Family: The victim and offender are related but not part of the immediate family (cousins, uncles, aunts, etc.).

Professional Relationships:

Employee-Employer: The victim and offender are connected through a work environment.

Client-Service Provider: The victim is a client of a service provided by the offender, or vice versa (such as doctor-patient).

Authority Relationships:

Teacher-Student: The victim and offender are connected through an educational setting.

Law Enforcement-Civilian: The victim or offender is a law enforcement officer.

Online Relationships:

Anonymous Online Interaction: Victim and offender have interacted only online and never met in person.

Known Online Interaction: The victim and offender have an online relationship and may have shared personal details but have not met in person.

***

The circumstances of victimization often play a role in the stranger-on-stranger crime pattern.

 Circumstances of Victimization:

random victim (victim chosen without specific targeting)

targeted victim (victim selected intentionally due to specific characteristics or circumstances)

opportunistic victim (victim who becomes a target due to a crime opportunity arising)

repeat victim (victim who has experienced multiple incidents of victimization)

serial victim (victim targeted by a serial offender)

Non-Person Victims

NIBRS categorizes these victims in the following categories: business, financial institutions, government, religious organizations, and society/public. 

 Offenders may have relationships with those entities.

Lifestyle & Occupation

Lifestyle and occupation may make someone a more likely victim of crime and often can tell us something useful to know about the offender in investigations. 

Lifestyle

The way in which a person lives is their lifestyle. 

Victim Lifestyle Aspects:

Routine Activities: Daily activities like commuting, shopping, or leisure activities can affect a person's likelihood of becoming a victim. Routine activities can also lead to hotspots of criminal activity. 

Residential Location: Areas with high poverty, low levels of social cohesion, or high population density can have higher rates of victimization.

Occupation: Certain occupations may expose individuals to higher risks. For example, late-night workers or those in high-crime areas might be more susceptible.

Social Circles: The people one associates with can influence the likelihood of becoming a victim.

Risk Behavior: Engaging in risky behaviors like drug use, excessive alcohol consumption, or frequenting dangerous locations can increase victimization chances.

Visibility: High public visibility or social media presence might make individuals attractive targets for certain types of crime, such as stalking or cyberbullying.

Age and Gender: Different age groups and genders are susceptible to different types of crimes.

Lack of Security Measures: Inadequate home or personal security measures can make individuals easier targets.

Time and Place of Activities: Certain activities at specific times, like late-night outings, can make someone more susceptible.

Offender Lifestyle Aspects:

Criminal Opportunities: Offenders often choose areas where they believe crime can be committed with a lower risk of detection.

Economic Status: Offenders from lower economic backgrounds may be more likely to engage in property crimes.

Peer Influence: Criminal behavior is often influenced by an offender's social circle.

Skill Level: The level of skill an offender has can influence the types of crimes they commit. For example, skilled hackers may engage in cybercrime, while unskilled offenders may stick to simpler forms of crime.

Addiction: Substance abuse can drive crime, especially petty crimes, to sustain the addiction.

Routine Activities: Just as with victims, the routine activities of offenders can influence where and when crimes are likely to be committed.

Occupation: Some occupations provide greater opportunities for crimes like fraud or embezzlement.

Motivation: The offender’s underlying motivations can also dictate the types of crimes committed, ranging from thrill-seeking to economic necessity.

Resource Availability: Having access to weapons, transportation, or technology can expand the types of crimes an offender might commit.

Example lifestyle variables: alcohol abuser, alcoholic, bisexual, child, child molester, criminally active, crossdresser, drifter, drug addict, drug seller, drug user, elderly, gambler, habitual offender, heterosexual, hitchhiker, homeless person, homosexual, illegal alien, immigrant, loner, mentally disabled, mentally ill, physically disabled, panhandler, pedophile, pimp, promiscuous, prostitute, public figure, recluse, registered sex offender, retired, runaway, smuggler, street person, student, thief, trafficker, transgender, transient, transvestite, wealthy 

A person who lives a life of crime may have that lifestyle as their occupation. It may be their only work.

Occupation Examples

Management: administrator, director, executive, manager 

Business and Financial Operation: accountant, agent, appraiser, event planner, loan officer, tax preparer

Computer and Mathematical: computer programmer, database administrator, web developer,  statistician, data scientist

Architecture and Engineering: architect, drafter, engineer, surveyor, technologist

Life, Physical, and Social Science:  biologist, chemist, economist, physicist, psychologist, scientist

Community and Social Service: case worker, clergy, counselor, human services worker, social worker, therapist

Legal: judge, lawyer, magistrate, paralegal 

Educational Instruction and Library: curator, librarian, professor, teacher, teacher's aide, teaching assistant, tutor,  

Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media: actor, anchor person, artist, athlete, coach, dancer, designer, disc jockey, director, editor, entertainer, journalist, musician, producer, reporter, scout, writer

Healthcare Practitioners and Technical: chiropractor, dentist, doctor, emergency medical technician, medical records specialist, nurse, paramedic, pharmacist, veterinarian 

Healthcare Support: massage therapist, nursing assistants, orderlies, occupational therapist, physical therapist

Protective Service: correctional officer, firefighter, military member, police officer, security screener, security guard, game warden 

Food Preparation and Serving Related: cook, bartender, dishwasher, food preparation worker, food server, host/hostess, waiter/waitress

Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance:  groundskeeper, housekeeper, janitor, landscaper, maid

Personal Care and Service: animal caretaker, barber, coatroom attendant, fitness instructor, gambling dealer, hairdresser,  nail technician, tour guide

Sales and Related: cashier, clerk, door-to-door salesperson, model, sales representative, real estate agent, salesperson, street vendor 

Office and Administrative Support: administrative assistant, bank teller,  bill collector, data entry worker, file clerk, mail carrier, secretary

Farming, Fishing, and Forestry: agricultural worker, animal breeder, conservation worker, farm worker, logging worker, ranch worker

Construction and Extraction: carpenter, electrician, highway maintenance worker, mining worker, oil drill operator, painter, plumber, roofer

Installation, Maintenance, and Repair: locksmith, mechanic, service technician

Production:  baker, butcher, engraver, dry cleaner, laboratory technician, machine operator, production worker, tailor

Transportation and Material Moving: bus driver, flight attendant, parking attendant, pilot, railroad worker, sailor, taxi driver, truck driver

Role or Status of Victim

Sometimes, the role or status of the victims has significance.

Role or Status:

bystander victim (victim unintentionally involved in a criminal incident)

witness victim (victim who witnessed a crime and may be targeted as a result)

whistleblower victim (victim targeted for exposing illegal activities)

retaliation victim (victim targeted as retaliation for previous actions)

high-profile victim (victim with public visibility, such as celebrities or politicians)

vulnerable population victim (victim belonging to a group susceptible to victimization, such as children, the elderly, and homeless individuals)

symbolic victim (victim whose case gains significant attention and represents a larger issue)

community impact victim (victim whose victimization affects the community at large)

accomplice victim (victim who is involved in criminal activities alongside the offender)

Further Reading

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. May 2022 Occupation Profiles. United States Department of Labor. Available at: https://www.bls.gov/oes/current/oes_stru.htm#00-0000

Impersonation, Lies, & Disguise

Sometimes offenders gain the trust of victims through means of deception.  They use disguises to avoid identification. Deception and disguise imply skill, confidence, and desire to commit crimes. They indicate the perpetrator planned.

Ruse, Con, and Impersonation 

An offender may be linked to multiple crimes by the ruse, con or, impersonation they employ. 

A ruse is an action intended to deceive someone or trick them. To con someone is to persuade them to do or believe something, typically by use of deception. The offender pretends  to do something in the following variable examples:

asking for/seeking directions

being sent by someone

going on date

lending assistance

looking for a pet

looking for someone

needing water/bathroom/phone

pretending to find money or other valuable

returning a purchase

returning stolen property

taking survey

faking a traffic accident

A lure is a temptation used to persuade a victim to do something (example: come closer) or go somewhere (example: get in a car). It is a form of deception.

Examples of using a lure:

Offender offered as a lure: amusement/game, assistance, candy/treats, cigarettes, drink (alcohol/coffee/water/etc.), food, employment, gas/oil/air for vehicle, gift/prize, information, money, profit on investment, romance, sex, toys, transportation, use of phone, use of toilet

Impersonation involves pretending to be another person to deceive a  victim. Here are variable examples of who an offender may pretend to be to commit a crime: 

blind person, businessperson, customer, dead, deaf person, delivery person, doctor/nurse, drunk/impaired, emergency services, employee, friend, God/Satan, guide, home buyer, home contractor, homeless, hurt, injured, inspector, insurance agent, journalist, law enforcement, minister, preacher, model agent, panhandler, photographer, physically disabled person, police, psychic, renter, renting, repair person, reporter,  salesperson, security guard, shopper, social services, tourist, utility worker, wheelchair-bound

Since crimes, especially robbery, are sometimes committed by masked perpetrators, or those wearing some sort of disguise, serial crimes may be linked via these elements. 

Mask and disguise type variable examples: 

altered age appearance, animal mask, Anonymous mask, authority figure, balaclava, bandana, Burqa, clown, construction worker, hood, fake beard, fake mustache, delivery person, ethnicity disguise, gas mask, Guy Fawkes, Halloween, hat, maintenance worker, man disguised as woman, medical, police, political figure, prosthetic, scarf, security guard, ski mask, stocking, surgical, wig, sunglasses, woman disguised as man

Victims' Vulnerabilities Further Reading

Further Reading

Glensor, R.W., Peak, K.J. (2004). Crimes Against Tourists, Problem-Specific Guide Series No. 26.  Problem-Oriented Guides for Police Series, Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice. Available at: https://popcenter.asu.edu/content/crimes-against-tourists-0

Johnson, K.D. (2003). Financial Crimes Against the Elderly, Problem-Specific Guide Series No. 20.  Problem-Oriented Guides for Police Series, Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice. Available at: https://popcenter.asu.edu/content/financial-crimes-against-elderly-0

Weisel, D. L.  (2005). Analyzing Repeat Victimization, Problem-Solving Tools Guide No. 4.  Problem-Oriented Guides for Police Series, Washington, DC: Office of Community Oriented Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice. Available at: https://popcenter.asu.edu/content/analyzing-repeat-victimization

Victims' Vulnerabilities

Offenders may target victims with specific vulnerabilities to commit the crimes in a crime pattern.  Noting similarities in victim vulnerability can help you link crimes in the pattern.

Example Victim Vulnerabilities

Physical vulnerabilities:

age (children, elderly individuals)

physical disabilities or limitations

size or physical stature

health condition

Psychological vulnerabilities:

mental health issues or disorders

cognitive impairments

substance abuse or addiction

trauma or post-traumatic stress

impulsivity or risk-taking behavior

inability to assess danger or make sound judgments 

Communication vulnerabilities:

limited language skills or language barriers

hearing or speech impairments

communication disorders

lack of access to communication devices or services

Socio-economic vulnerabilities:

poverty

unemployment

homelessness

lack of access to education or resources

Geographic vulnerabilities:

high crime rate neighborhoods or areas

remote, secluded, or isolated locations

lack of security infrastructure (lighting, surveillance)

Home vulnerabilities:

lack of home security measures

absence from home (vacations, work, school)

negligence in locking doors, windows

Social vulnerabilities:

lack of social support or strong relationships

social isolation

membership in marginalized or stigmatized groups

targeting based on social status or reputation

peer pressure and influence

discrimination or prejudice

targeted based on race, religion, sexual orientation, or other protected characteristics

Gender-based vulnerabilities:

targeting women for sexual crimes

targeting homosexuals for crime

gender-based violence and harassment

sexual orientation-based violence and harassment

domestic violence or intimate partner violence

traditional gender roles and stereotypes

Technological vulnerabilities:

lack of digital literacy

weak online privacy and security practices

cyberbullying or online harassment

phishing scams and identity theft

exploitation through social media or dating platforms

over-sharing personal information online

weak passwords

revealing geotagged location details

Cultural vulnerabilities:

language barriers

limited knowledge of local customs or laws

cultural or religious practices that may make individuals more susceptible to victimization

targeting based on ethnic or cultural background

unfamiliar with the local environment

targeting in popular tourist destinations

Environmental vulnerabilities:

natural disasters or emergencies

lack of emergency preparedness

poorly maintained infrastructure or public spaces

exposure to environmental hazards (polluted areas, unsafe buildings)

Personal lifestyle vulnerabilities:

alcohol or drug use

involvement in illegal activities

reckless behavior (excessive partying, risky sexual behavior)

inadequate personal safety precautions (not locking doors, walking alone at night)

Financial vulnerabilities:

carrying large sums of cash

lack of financial security measures

falling victim to investment scams or fraud