Gregory Saville:

"This book is a breakthrough for the science of crime and prevention and for the criminological enterprise – both academic and practitioner. Osborne has made a contribution of considerable weight. This is a book you should read."

Qualitative Crime Pattern Identification

Tuesday, July 2, 2024

Key Elements in Robbery Patterns

Here are some key elements in robbery patterns:

Weapon choice: 

The selection of weapons can vary widely among robbers. Firearms are often chosen for their intimidation factor, but they also carry higher legal penalties if caught. Knives or other edged weapons are sometimes preferred for their concealability. Some robbers use replica or toy guns to reduce legal risk while maintaining the threat level. Blunt objects or even improvised weapons might be used in opportunistic robberies. The choice often reflects the robber's access to weapons, their level of commitment to violence, and their assessment of what will be most effective in controlling victims.

Approach tactics: 

Robbers employ various strategies to initiate their crimes. The surprise attack involves suddenly confronting the victim, often from behind or around a corner, to maximize shock and compliance. The deception approach might involve asking for directions or the time before revealing criminal intent. Some robbers pose as authority figures or service personnel to gain trust and access. In business robberies, robbers might enter as apparent customers before revealing their intentions. The choice of approach often depends on the target type and the robber's personal style.

Verbal strategies: 

The language used during a robbery can be highly characteristic. Some robbers use aggressive, threatening language to instill fear and ensure compliance. Others might adopt a calmer tone, attempting to minimize panic and reduce the likelihood of resistance or calling attention to the crime. Specific phrases or demands can become part of a robber's signature. For example, consistently using phrases like "This is a robbery" or specific instructions like "Put the money in a bag" can form part of the MO.

Target type consistency: 

Many robbers specialize in particular types of targets based on factors like perceived ease, expected payoff, and familiarity. Some focus on businesses like convenience stores or gas stations, which often have cash on hand and may be open late with few staff. Others might target individuals on the street, choosing areas known for wealthy pedestrians or tourists. Bank robberies, while less common, are often committed by individuals who specialize in this high-risk, potentially high-reward target. The consistency in target selection can be due to the robber developing expertise in a particular type of robbery or feeling more comfortable with familiar scenarios.

Time and location patterns: 

Robbers often have preferred times and locations for their crimes. These patterns might be based on factors like the availability of targets, reduced police presence, or the cover of darkness. For example, street robbers might operate primarily in the evening when there are still pedestrians but visibility is lower. Commercial robbers might target businesses at opening or closing times when cash handling occurs. Location patterns could involve focusing on specific neighborhoods, near transit hubs, or in areas with quick escape routes.

Escape methods: 

The way a robber leaves the scene is often a crucial and consistent part of their MO. Some prefer to escape on foot, relying on their knowledge of the area to evade capture. Others might use a vehicle, which could be their own, stolen, or driven by an accomplice. Public transportation can be used as it allows for blending into crowds quickly. Some robbers might have pre-planned routes, while others might improvise based on circumstances. The choice of escape method often reflects the robber's resources, local knowledge, and risk assessment.

Number of perpetrators: 

The decision to work alone or with others is a significant aspect of a robbery MO. Solo robbers might prefer the simplicity and reduced risk of betrayal, while groups can provide more control over the situation and potential lookouts. Pairs are common, with one person typically taking a more active role while the other watches for threats or manages the escape. Larger groups might be involved in more complex operations, like armored car robberies. The number of perpetrators often correlates with the scale and complexity of the target.

Level of violence: 

The degree of force used can be a consistent element in a robber's MO. Some rely purely on the threat of violence, never actually engaging in physical harm. Others might use minimal force, such as pushing or restraining victims. On the extreme end, some robbers consistently use severe violence as a means of control or even as a primary motivation alongside the theft. The level of violence can be influenced by factors like the robber's personality, past experiences, and assessment of what's necessary to accomplish their goals.

Use of disguises: 

Concealment of identity is often a key concern for robbers. Some might consistently use full face coverings like masks or balaclavas. Others might opt for less conspicuous methods like sunglasses and hats. Some robbers might use more elaborate disguises, such as wigs or fake beards. The choice of disguise often balances the need for anonymity with the desire to avoid drawing attention before the robbery begins. Consistent use of certain disguise elements can become part of a robber's signature MO.

Technology use: 

In the modern era, technology plays an increasing role in robbery MOs. Some robbers might consistently use technology to their advantage, such as using social media to identify potential targets or their schedules. Others might focus on disabling security systems or surveillance cameras as part of their method. On the flip side, some robbers might deliberately avoid areas with known camera coverage or eschew personal technology use to minimize digital evidence. The use or deliberate non-use of technology can be a defining aspect of a robber's MO in today's world.

Monday, July 1, 2024

July: Robbery Month and Free Book Chapter

About Robbery Month

This month I will be covering the elements of robbery patterns in depth and, by the end of the month, I will have covered the elements of robbery patterns extensively, including examples of serial robberies and related resources for readers.

Robbery serial patterns are more easily identified than most crime patterns. A robbery has a witness who often can provide information on the offender(s) description, approach, and characteristics, as well as vehicle description (if relevant), the weapon(s) used, exact time and place, and what specific property was taken. Thus, commonalities are easier to find for crime pattern identification.

This month I will present the elements of robbery patterns in various ways, which will have some repetition. This repetition will help you look at the variables from different angles. I use material from my book as well as the results from LLMs such as Chat-GPT and Claude.

~

This is the short chapter "Robbery" in the book "Elements of Crime Patterns:"

Robbery is the unlawful taking of property from another person through force or intimidation.

Robbery serial patterns are more easily identified than most crime patterns. A robbery has a witness who can provide information on the offender(s) description, approach, and characteristics, as well as vehicle description, the weapon(s) used, exact time and place, and the property was taken. Thus, commonalities are easier to find for crime pattern identification.

Robbery MO Variables

Objectives:

Financial Gain: The most common motive is the immediate acquisition of money or valuable goods.

Resource Funding: In organized crime or terrorist activities, robbery can serve as a way to fund other operations.

Intimidation or Power: Some robbers are motivated by the psychological gain involved in risking and confrontation.

Planning and Organization:

Target Selection: Whether targeting an individual, a residence, or a commercial establishment, robbers may scout locations for vulnerabilities.

Timing: Robberies often happen when victims are most vulnerable—early mornings, late nights, or during particular events.

Accomplices: More organized robberies might involve multiple individuals with defined roles such as lookouts, drivers, and the primary robber.

Technical Framework:

Weapons: The use of weapons, like guns or knives, is common to intimidate victims into compliance.

Disguise: Masks, fake uniforms, or other disguises may be employed to conceal identity.

Communication: In-group communication may involve untraceable phones, coded language, or hand signals.

Execution:

Approach Method: This may vary from a stealthy, surprise attack to a confrontational approach.

Escape Plan: A well-thought-out escape route or vehicle may be arranged in advance.

Diversion Tactics: Distractions or other diversions may be used.

Intermediaries:

Fencing Operations: Stolen goods are often quickly sold or traded through intermediaries.

Financiers: In some cases, particularly in organized crime, a financier may back the operation in return for a cut of the proceeds.

Legal Evasion:

Changing MO: To avoid detection, a robber may change their methods or targets periodically.

Alibis: False alibis may be prepared in advance to deflect suspicion.

Counter-Surveillance: Measures might be taken to detect and avoid police or security presence.

Aftermath:

Laundering: Cash or valuable items may be laundered through various means to make them difficult to trace.

Relocation: Perpetrators might leave the area or even the country to avoid capture, especially after high-stakes robberies.


Serial Robbery Type Examples

ATM Robberies: These involve targeting individuals withdrawing money from ATMs. It can be done opportunistically or  by carefully observing a target. Serial offenders might choose the same type of location (isolated, poorly lit) and time (usually late at night) for their crimes. Series of these crimes usually follow a pattern based on the types and locations of targeted ATMs.

Bank Robberies: These include robberies of credit unions, location is often in a commercial or shopping district, mostly male offenders who target branch offices at the counter, offender often presents a note to the bank teller that demands money and implies or explicitly states that the robber is armed, may exploit knowledge of bank procedures and layouts. 

 Carjacking: This is stealing a person's vehicle while they're in it, most often one person in the car, offender most often has a weapon, may target specific models of cars, locations, or times of day, more likely to occur at or near person’s home, males, and females equally targeted. 

Cash-in-Transit Robberies: Offenders target vehicles moving cash or other valuables between locations, may use force and/or weapons to overpower the drivers, possibly organized crime group. 

Convenience Store Robberies: These may involve one or two individuals who rob small retail stores during late-night hours when fewer witnesses are around, may use firearms or other weapons, and typically target cash registers or safe boxes. May have a repeat offense pattern of location, time, and modus operandi, often armed robberies, due to the late operating hours and often minimal security measures, may work quickly, threatening staff, and take cash from registers or safes

Delivery Person: Delivery persons are often alone and may be more susceptible when carrying goods or cash. The offender intercepts the delivery person at the delivery point, or earlier, sometimes posing as a customer.

Delivery Truck Robberies/Hijackings: This form of robbery involves the interception and robbery of delivery trucks; criminals often operate in teams and have inside information about delivery routes and schedules.

Gas Station Robberies: Criminals often target gas stations due to the consistent cash flow and often minimal security. Serial robbers might target stations along specific highways or regions, and usually, act quickly, often armed. Serial robbers frequently target gas stations because they're often open late and staffed by a single clerk. 

Home Invasions: This involves breaking into houses when they are occupied, often threatening and sometimes assaulting residents and stealing valuables. The serial home invader may prefer a specific neighborhood or type of home and often develops a consistent method of entry and escape. They may use a ruse to gain entry.

Liquor Store Robberies: Like convenience store robberies, these target small liquor stores. These crimes might follow patterns concerning time (often after dark), location (isolated areas), and method (quick, sometimes violent).

Pharmacy Robberies: Criminals might target pharmacies for prescription drugs to use or sell. Serial pharmacy robbers may have a consistent strategy, such as presenting fraudulent prescriptions before resorting to threats or violence and may target chains in similar locations. They may also use disguises or wear hats and sunglasses to avoid being recognized by CCTV cameras.

Purse Snatching: This involves stealing women's purses directly from their persons. Serial purse snatchers might target specific locations (like shopping malls or parking lots) and use consistent methods. Commonalities in approach method can help link crimes.

Restaurant Robberies: These occur in restaurants, especially fast-food restaurants, often at closing time when the day's earnings are still on the premises. Serial restaurant robbers might target the same chain or similar types of establishments, often with a consistent strategy. 

Retail Store: These involve robbers who specialize in specific types of retail stores, such as electronics or jewelry stores, where stolen items may be resold easily in the black markets.

Street Robberies: This involves robbing individuals in public spaces, typically involving a threat of violence. Serial muggers might target specific types of victims (tourists, older individuals) or certain locations, often late at night. 

Taxi Driver  Robberies: Taxi drivers are targeted because they have contact with many strangers or people they do not know well, often work in high-crime areas, may carry cash with them in an unsecured manner and handle money as payment, usually work alone, often go to, or through, isolated locations, often work late at night or early in the morning . With ride-share alternatives available, taxi driver robberies may be less likely; ride share drivers are also targeted for robbery. Offenders can create fake profiles to use their services and target them. 



Monday, June 24, 2024

VICAP and Serial Crimes

While my book "Elements of Crime Patterns" considers that any type of crime is serial if the same offender(s) commit them, most people think of serial crimes as pertaining to murder and sexual assaults. The Federal Bureau of Investigation's Violent Criminal Apprehension Program has a database that I urge all U.S. law enforcement agencies to utilize to capture the details of such possible serial crimes. This can lead to identification of suspects and thus end of a significant violent crime series. 

Some of he nuances identified in my book are the specific kinds of things recorded in the database.

Data on missing persons and identified human remains are also in this database. Related posters can be found at this link.

You can learn how to get access at this link.




 


Friday, June 21, 2024

Chicago PD: How to Describe a Suspect

My book "Elements of Crime Patterns" includes much of the information below. If you don't have the book, this is a great resource in considering variables to look for when you are looking for similarities in robberies to find patterns.

From the Chicago Police Department at this link

To capture a criminal in these highly mobile times, it is of utmost importance for the police to promptly obtain an accurate description. Following are some of the most important identifiers the police need to apprehend criminal suspects. Keep this information in mind so that you can give the police an accurate description of any criminal or criminal incident you may observe.


Location information is critical:

Observe where you are and the exact location of the crime. Try to remember if you have ever seen the suspect in the area before.

Note the time as precisely as possible.

Observe if the suspect is carrying a weapon and, if so, what type-revolver, handgun, shotgun, knife, etc.

If the suspect leaves the scene, note the direction of flight.

If the suspect is in a vehicle, note as much of the following information as possible: vehicle type (auto, truck, van, etc.); color; make and model; condition (dirty, damaged, etc.); and license plate numbers.

Note also if the vehicle has no license plates or a “license applied for” sticker in the rear windshield.

Watch for decoys or accomplices.


A variety of general description information about the suspect should be noted:

Sex

Race or national origin

Age (estimated)

Height-use comparisons with your own height, a door, or some other standard measure

Weight (estimated)

Build-fat, husky, slim, muscular, etc.


Facial information is also important:

Hair-note the color, texture, hairline, style; also possible dyes or wigs

Forehead-note forehead height, and whether the skin is smooth, creased or wrinkled

Eyes-note the color, shape (round, slanted), whether clear or bloodshot, and the heaviness of eyelashes and eyebrows

Nose-overall shape (long, wide, flat, etc.) and nostrils (wide, narrow, flared) are important

Cheeks-is the flesh sunken, filled out, dried or oily? are there wrinkles around nose or mouth? are cheek bones high or low, wide or narrow?

Ears-note size and prominence (protruding or flat against head)

Mouth-are lips thin, medium, full? do corners turn up, turn down, or level?

Chin-what is the shape (round, oval, pointed, square)? double chin, dimpled, cleft?

Neck-note protruding Adam’s apple or hanging jowls

Complexion-note pores, pockmarks, acne, razor rash, bumps

Facial hair-clean shaven? unshaven? beard, mustache, goatee, sideburns?

Tattoos-shape and style; on what part of the body


Clothing information is also very important:

Hat-note color, style, ornaments, how it is worn (bill forward, backward, to one side)

Coat-note color and style (suit coat, jacket, topcoat, overcoat)

Shirt/Blouse/Dress-note color, design, sleeves, collar

Trousers/Slacks/Skirt-note color, style, cuffs

Socks-note color, pattern, length

Shoes-note color, style, brand name for sneakers (if possible), condition

Accessories-sweater, scarf, gloves, necktie

Jewelry-rings, watches, bracelets, necklaces

General appearance-neat or sloppy? clean or dirty?

Oddities-look for clothing too large or too small; odd colors; patchwork


Look for other physical features or peculiarities:

Voice-pitch, tone, rasp, lisp

Speech-articulate, uneducated, accent, use of slang

Gait-slow, fast, limp


You will never be able to remember all of these details about any one suspect you may see. But remembering as many as possible can be particularly helpful to the police and to your community.


 https://home.chicagopolice.org/about/contact-us/how-to-describe-a-suspect/



Thursday, June 20, 2024

Pattern Analysis for Law Enforcement Analysts

The International Association of Crime Analysts is offering a 12 week course on pattern analysis. Some material I have provided to the instructor, Dawn Reeby, will be used in the class, and there are two sessions on elements of crime patterns. 

"Schedule: July 1-September 20, 2024, September 30-December 20, 2024

Description

This 12-week course is dedicated to "Cracking the Code: Pattern Analysis for Law Enforcement Analysts," and is an intensive class designed exclusively for law enforcement analysts. This training will equip you with the advanced skills required to detect complex crime patterns and trends, transforming you into an analytical expert capable of tackling even the most challenging cases."

See the link below for more information and to register!

https://www.iaca.net/pattern-analysis



Tuesday, November 14, 2023

These were the serial crimes I tracked when I was a crime analyst at the local level of policing:


Bank Robberies

Bar Related

Bootleg Goods

Cab/Taxi Driver Victims

Car Break-ins

Carjackings

Cemeteries

Commercial Crime

Construction Related

Counterfeit Money

Delivery Robberies

Disguises

Drugged/Intoxicated Victims

Elderly Victims

Fast Food Restaurant Related

Fraud/Scams

Gangs

Garage Burglaries

Gas Station Related

Graffiti

Handicapped Victims

Hate Crimes

Home Invasions

Homicides

Hotel/Motel Related

Juvenile Victims

Metal Theft

Parking Lot Related

Prostitution

Public Transportation Crimes

Purse Snatching

Religious Building Related

Repeat Offenders

Restaurant Related

Ruse Burglaries

School Related

Sex Crimes with Unknown Assailants

Shootings

Stolen Firearms

Theft from Coin Machines

Theft of Antiques/Collectibles

Theft of ATVs/Boats/Recreational Vehicles

Theft of Cigarettes

Theft of Computers

Theft of GPS Units

Theft of Jewelry

Theft of Pets/Animals

Vacant Dwelling Related

Vandalism

Weapon Possession

Monday, November 13, 2023

Knowledge & Skills

 One example out of ten in the Knowledge & Skills Chapter 18:

 Artistic Abilities:

  • Art Forgery/Counterfeiting: Skills in painting, sculpture, graphics design, or other artistic mediums to create forgeries of art or counterfeit money.

Something to be aware of!

Key Elements in Robbery Patterns

Here are some key elements in robbery patterns: Weapon choice:  The selection of weapons can vary widely among robbers. Firearms are often c...